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Milos Raonic will face Lucas Pouille on Tuesday Night, Day 10 at the Australian Open, with a place in the semifinals up for grabs.
Raonic has been exceptional in this tournament, and his progress to the quarterfinals might have been the most impressive of any player. Raonic had a criminally difficult draw, but even so he managed to lose a single set in his wins over Kyrgios, Wawrinka, Herbert and Alexander Zverev. Not only that, but barring the match against Wawrinka (a real thriller), he absolutely dominated the opposition, and not only with his serve. Raonic played only 3 tiebreaks in his 9 sets vs Kyrgios, Herbert and Zverev. He defeated Alex Zverev 6-1 6-1 7-6 in the fourth round via a masterclass performance.
Lucas Pouille has flown a bit under the rader en route to his best ever result at a Grand Slam, but in all honesty there was no reason to make waves about his performance. In complete contract to Raonic, Pouille was blessed with a very weak draw, and even so had his fair share of problems. Pouille defeated Kukushkin 3-0, Marterer 3-1, Popyrin 3-2 and Coric 3-1 to reach this stage.
Bet on Raonic v Pouille and get your 100% (120 Eur) welcome bonus at LSbet now!Raonic leads the H2H 3-0 (2-0 on hard courts) and never had any problems with Pouille, claiming all his wins in straight sets. The previous one was last year in Stuttgart, on clay, with Raonic winning 6-4 7-6 – the only time Pouille managed to push a set further than 6-4.
Raonic is playing the tennis of his life right now, and there`s no reason to expect him to stop against Pouille – who is actually less dangerous than some of the opponents Raonic met so far.
Credit to Pouille for reaching this stage, and he wouldn`t have reached it by playing poor tennis. He`s in good form, he`s confident, but he`s not doing anything special, and you have to feel that his very easy schedule has a lot to do with him reaching the quarters. He also does not have the weapons to trouble Raonic (as the H2H clearly indicates), especially when Milos is playing this way, so the matchup also seems like a problem for Pouille.
Raonic is obviously serving lights out, having conceded just 4 breaks of serve the entire tourneament, and having faced just 5 total break points! But Milos has expanded his game well beyond that, as his groundstrokes and his return game was excellent as well. He completely rattled Zverev with his backhand slice en route to his 6-1 6-1 7-6 demolition of the German in the previous round.
Pouille has never won a set against Raonic, and wasn`t even competitive in any of the 5 sets they played on hard court, so you definitely would not expect that to change now, when the Canadian is in this kind of form.
Of course, betting on a straight sets win in a quarterfinal will always have a degree of risk, as a couple of moments here and there could change a course of a set despite an overall dominance of a player. Plus, a tiebreak or two can`t be excluded when we are talking about Raonic, and those mini matches always pose a danger.
But, overall, any common logic would suggest a straight sets Raonic win here, and after watching him play it`s hard to see him having problems in this match. Rhe odds are surely worth the risk in my eyes, so my tip will be Raonic to cover the 2,5 set handicap. Prediction: Milos Raonic – Lucas Pouille 7-6 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Raonic -2,5 set handicap
Odds: 2.19 @ 10Bet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 9.52
Event date: 23 January
