Lucic-Baroni – Day

Lucic Baroni Kayla Day preview

I am kind of breaking my record of posting picks, with two for this Friday. To be honest I missed writing and I found some time for my dear friend Rostick and for Betdistrict.

Mirjana Lucic Baroni will square off against one of USA’s potential future stars, Kayla Day, in the second round at Indian Wells. I`m liking the underdog here, again.

Lucic Baroni had a bye in the first round, while Kayla Day was impressive to defeat Nara 6-3 6-4, breaking her no less than 8 times!

Lucic Baroni is the more accomplished and experienced player. She had a nice career, beating some top players over the years and posting the occasional impressive result and has played OK lately. However, there are other factors goind against her ahead of this match.

An interesting and relevant fact about Lucic-Baroni is that Indian Wells was never too kind with her. She has a record of 6 wins (3 of them came in qualies) and 12 losses. She managed to lose to Puig, Riske, Majeric or Wickmayer in the past 4 years and never did well here.

What`s more, there are question marks over Lucic’s fitness level. She played 18 matches so far in 2017 (S and D combined) and that’s a lot of tennis for a 35 year old (btw, she celebrated her birthday yesterday). She retired in her previous tournament, being down 0-5 to Tsurenko, so there are chances she won`t be on her ‘A game’.

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Kayla Day is on a career high ranking of No.175 and at 17 years old she`s a very promising talent. Last year she won the juniors’ US Open and reached the semifinals at Wimbledon. She also played US Open seniors last year where she won a match, 6-2 4-2 RET against Brengle.

Day is looking good at the moment, definitely better than Lucic-Baroni, so one can ask how and why is she an underdog in this match. Day has a combined hold/break score of 105.1% in her last 15 matches (including breaking Nara 8 times in the first round), while Lucic has a 101.2% score, so the statistics look pretty good for the teenager.

The two players have never met before on tour.

Lucic was rubbish in her entire career at IW, much of that having to do with the surface. Her power based, ball bashing style of play is not best suited to these rather slow hard courts. Day on the other hand can play longer rallies and also is used to the difficult California weather.

Looking at surface, form and all the other circumstances, odds on Day seem unjustifiable to me, so I`m backing her for a juicy potential return of investment. I think there`s good value to be taken here. My bet is Day to win.

Pick: Day
Odds: 3.13 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 17.04
Event date: 10 March

About Ardeal

Recognized tennis expert, verified paid tips positive record. Twitter: @UnArdeal

2 comments

  1. How about that. Nice work.

    • Bet could have gone either way from what I see in the scoreline, but Ardeal definitely knows what he`s talking about when it comes to tennis.

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