Napoli – Lazio

Napoli Lazio betting previewEverything on the line in the last round of Serie A, as Napoli and Lazio will battle for the last available Champions League spot. Lazio holds a three point advantage for the 3rd place and needs a draw, while Napoli will go into Champions League with a win.

Napoli was unable to take advantage of Juventus fielding a weakened side last week and lost 3-1, but Lazio’s loss gave Napoli what they wanted – the chance to play with qualification on the table at home in the last round. The hosts are in pretty good shape lately – the Europa League loss against Dnipro was a bad result, but in Italy Napoli won 5 of the last 8 matches. At home they have been particularly solid, winning 7 times and drawing twice in the last 9 outings.

Lazio blew it last weekend against arch rivals Roma. A draw would have guaranteed them third place, but somehow they managed to lose that one at home and it was a gut wrenching defeat. The visitors have lost their rhythm in this end of the season, winning just 1 of the last 5 games in all competitions. They are close to losing everything they worked for this season, after also being defeated by Juventus in the Cup final.

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Team news & lineups:

Napoli has the same old injuries, De Guzman, Michu and Zuniga. Britos is suspended. Lazio will have to do without Ederson, while Radu and Biglia are highly doubtful and will probably be out as well.

Napoli: Andujar – Maggio, Strinic, Albiol, Ghoulam – Inler, Lopez – Callejon, Hamsik, Insigne – Higuain

Lazio: Marchetti – Basta, De Vrij, Gentiletti, Braafheid – Lulic, Parolo, Mauri – Anderson, Klose, Candreva

With Napoli having to win at all costs, this is set to be an open game. While I don’t expect the hosts to go all out attack from the start, the first goal will surely open everything up. Napoli has the power to score a couple here if they go for it, but on the other hand Lazio has a very good chance of punishing Napoli’s shaky defense on the breaks. With both teams being built to play attacking football, I expect to see over 2,5 goals and the odds on the under / over market are excellent.

Napoli has 4 overs in the last 4 matches, while Lazio has 2 in the last 4. My tip will be over 2,5 goals. Prediction: Napoli – Lazio 2-2.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.83 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.64
Event date: 31 May

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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