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New Zealand – Argentina



New Zealand Argentina rugby championship betting preview

The mighty New Zealand will host Argentina at Trafalgar Park, in Nelson, in the third round of the 2018 Rugby Championship.

It has been a casual run in the first two rounds for the All Blacks, who continued their perfect domination of this competition with two big wins against Australia (by 25 and 28 points). Things are expected to continue in the same way in this third round, as Argentina can`t possibly be expected to challenge for a win, considering that New Zealand barely showed any weaknesses at all in the first two rounds. The All Blacks seem to be at their absolute best right now, which would be a scary prospect for any opponent.

After a poor run of results in the last two years or so, capped by a horrific showing in the June test window, Argentina finally parted ways with coach Hourcade and brought in Jaguares manager Mario Ledesma. The team entered the Rugby Championship on the back of three horrible home losses over the Summer against Wales “B” (twice) and Scotland “B”. However, the hiring of Ledesma seems to have had the expected impact. Argentina lost the opening match by 13 points in South Africa (in all honesty they should have lost by more), and claimed one of their biggest ever wins in the next round, dismantling the Springboks 32-19 in Mendoza.

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Team news & lineups:

New Zealand was expected to rotate the squad in this clash and indeed they will make 7 changes here compared to their previous lineup (Moody being the only new injury). The All Blacks obviously have a ton of depth so the rotation shouldn`t affect them too much, but one change could have a big impact: Beauden Barrett, the engine of New Zealand`s offense has been left out of the squad. Mo`unga is more than a capable replacement and he will be fired up, but still Barrett is one of the few irreplaceable players for the All Blacks and it will be interesting to see how the team fares without him. Sam Whitelock’s absence could also weaken NZ’s scrum a bit.

Argentina has two massive absences in the form of Figallo and Bertranou. Matera is also hurt and will not start, but he should be on the bench.

New Zealand: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Waisake Naholo, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Karl Tu’inukuafe

Argentina: 15 Emiliano Boffelli, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Javier Ortega Desio, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Tomas Lezana, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Nahuel Chaparro Tetaz, 2 Agustin Creevy (c), 1 Santiago Garcia Botta

New Zealand has won 25 out of the 26 matches played against Argentina, with the Pumas only able to get a draw back in 1985. Last year in the Rugby Championship New Zealand won by 26 points in Argentina, but the Pumas actually competed very well on the road in New Zealand, only losing by 17 points.

Argentina will be pumped up after their massive win against South Africa, and they will also be happy with the two weeks of rest (maybe one of the reasons for which they only lost this fixture by 17 points last year). However, despite the success in the previous round the team still has its issues, which were visible in the first round in South Africa, when Argentina should have lost by 20+ points if the Boks didn`t miss a ton of kicks at goal.

Starting without three key players in the form of Bertranou, Matera and Figallo will also hurt Argentina a lot. Missing three key players against a team like New Zealand is something which almost no team in the world can afford without drastic consequences. A fair point can be made that these injuries could hurt Argentina more than New Zealand will be affected by the 7 changes they will make themselves – depending on how much Barrett’s rest will impact the All Blacks.

Playing without Beauden Barrett will obviously be a challenge, as he is one of 4 or 5 irreplaceable players in the team, and his impact can not be replicated due to his unique combination of pace, smarts and skills. It is a fact that nobody can quite play like him and impact a game the way he does. But Mo’unga is the best replacement one could hope for, he is in massive form and will be fired up for his first start.

Argentina might be able to dominate the scrum considering all the New Zealand rotation, but that was always an aspect in which they excelled, and New Zealand should still be able to hold its own. As far as the wide game goes, with the exception of Barrett the players selected from 11 to 15 could be the first choice ones anytime. The All Blacks should run havoc when their wide line will see the ball.

Considering that the handicap is pretty accessible here at just 26 points (because of Argentina’s heroics two weeks ago and New Zealand using rotation the line is almost the same one New Zealand was given two weeks ago vs the much stronger Australia), looking at how well the All Blacks are playing, and taking into account Argentina’s 3 big absences, you would expect New Zealand to cover the spread here even with all the changes they will make. The team is still ultra strong, and the players who will come in will be extra motivated to perform.

There will also be a sell out crowd of +21.000 which will be very loud considering that this is the first time New Zealand plays in Nelson. As such, there shouldn`t be any danger of the All Blacks treating the game lightly or giving anything less than their best effort.

Look for the All Blacks to play at full intensity and you really can’t bet against them when the line is just 26 points at home against Argentina. The Pumas could be relatively competitive for 50-60 minutes, but if that is the case expect New Zealand to destroy them in the last 20 minutes or so, a timespan in which the All Blacks can easily score even 4-5 tries if they push the tempo. The bench for New Zealand is magnificent and Argentina almost always falters at the end of matches.

All in all my tip on this clash will be New Zealand to win and cover the 26 point handicap. The line is currently moving up. Prediction: New Zealand – Argentina 48 – 15.

Pick: New Zealand -26
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.44
Event date: 8 September

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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2 Responses

  1. New Zealand have a perfect record at home against Argentina 14-0, so clearly picking anything other than an All Blacks win is pure speculation.

    However the -26 point handicap is a high hurdle to cover, especially against an improving Argentine side that has the benefit of a recent successful Super Rugby season with wins in New Zealand.

    New Zealand are rotating players – that might mean that combinations are not perfect and they have a history of doing that against the Pumas in this game – so let’s look at the last six home games against Argentina (all Rugby Championship fixtures).

    2012 – NZ Win 21-5 (+16)
    2013 – NZ Win 28-13 (+15)
    2014 – NZ Win 28-9 (+19)
    2015 – NZ Win 39-18 (+21)
    2016 – NZ Win 57-22 (+35)
    2017 – NZ Win 39-22 (+17)

    So NZ win all five comfortably enough with margins of +15 to +35, with the average margin 21 points, and the median margin at +18 points.

    The Pumas pack will be tough to overcome in the first half, they’re big and strong and will compete well until they are exhausted, and the Pumas backline will score a few points (probably around 20).

    The All Blacks are overwhelming favourites, the bookmakers know this and expect a flood of money on them. I think that the handicap is set a little high as I would NOT be surprised to see a scoreline of around 40-20 (give or take a couple of points either way) which sits just under the handicap level.

    The All BLacks winning in a blowout is not impossible – new players will try to take their chance to impress – but I’d favour Argentina to compete well and keep the score within the handicap (probably about 75% likely)

    • Fair points and I appreciate your detailed input
       
      Indeed Argentina has a history of being competitive in New Zealand, BUT this current dominating NZ side only plays together since 2016. Not that they weren`t dominant before, but this current side is just something special. Plus, I think before 2016 Argentina could also call up foreign based players for the Rugby Championship (though I`m not 100% sure). So with these in mind only the last two games are relevant.
       
      I just give NZ a bit more credit because they have covered the spread so often in the last 3 years and 26.5 is a line they tend to cover even against the Wallabies or the Boks. We`ll see how much the changes affect them. Cheers, mate!

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