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New Zealand – Canada

New Zealand Canada rugby world cup betting preview

New Zealand will play the second match of their 2019 Rugby World Cup on Wednesday against a Canada side which will be desperate to avoid a historic trashing.

The All Blacks looked very sharp last week in a 23-13 win over South Africa, virtually assuring themselves the first place in Pool B right from the first match. Even though New Zealand lost the shortened edition of the Rugby Championship this year, they are looking well prepared for this World Cup. After the Rugby Championship they played three matches, beating Australia 36-0, Tonga 92-7 (!!) and South Africa 23-13 last week.

Canada is really struggling right now, and quite honestly the team has been struggling a lot since the last World Cup. The Canadians got worse and worse over the past few years, to the point that they lost matches against the likes of Uruguay, Russia or Brazil, not to mention a few blowout losses to rivals USA. This year Canada has a win – loss record of 1-8, and lost the first RWC match 7-48 against Italy last week. A fair case can be made they are one of the two weakest teams of this World Cup. In fact, they were the last to reach the tournament via a re-qualification competition.

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Team news & lineups:

New Zealand will surprisingly field an extremely strong lineup here, which with 4-5 exceptions could be the first choice lineup at any time.

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Jordie Barrett, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Atu Moli.

Canada: 15 Patrick Parfrey, 14 Jeff Hassler, 13 Conor Trainor, 12 Ciaran Hearn, 11 DTH Van Der Merwe, 10 Peter Nelson, 9 Gordon McRorie, 8 Tyler Ardron (c), 7 Matt Heaton, 6 Lucas Rumball, 5 Conor Keys, 4 Evan Olmstead, 3 Cole Keith, 2 Eric Howard, 1 Djustice Sears-Duru.

You`d be really hard pressed to find a more one sided clash in this Rugby World Cup. Not only is New Zealand going to field a strong lineup, but they also had an 11 day break to work on training, and they will be raring to go on the pitch again. Meanwhile Canada is really struggling, playing poorly, and also has just 5 days of rest. This short turnaround has the potential to be an absolute disaster against the mighty All Blacks. Surely Canada was distraught when finding out about the schedule.

There so much pace in this NZ lineup! Look for Rieko Ioane in particular to wreak havoc in the disorganized Canadian defense. The new wonder boy of World Rugby lost his place in the starting xv after losing form at the worst time, after he destroyed defenses last year. He will be desperate to prove himself and get his spot back. Beauden Barrett`s presence will of course be crucial as usual. All this speed in the All Blacks lineup will create all kinds of problems for Canada.

The handicap line is indeed very high at 66,5 points, but if Italy put 48 points past Canada, there`s no doubt New Zealand can score at least double that if they want. The All Blacks met Tier 2 teams only twice over the past 2-3 years, winning 78-0 against Samoa in 2017 and 92-7 against Tonga less than one month ago. And these two sides are both far superior to Canada.

Scoring a try every 8 minutes in average would be no problem for New Zealand against an out of sorts team like Canada, they will break their lines with regularity virtually every few minutes. It all depends how much the All Blacks will push once they get a comfortable advantage. But they`re not the kind of team to show mercy, as their recent results against Tier 2 sides suggest.

The last meeting between the two sides took place at the 2011 World Cup, when New Zealand won 79-15.

It could rain at game time, so that`s a factor which could help Canada make the game a bit messier, and must be taken into account when betting on the All Blacks. But it`s not like the All Blacks didn`t destroy teams in bad weather as well.

I`ll trust New Zealand to cover the 66,5 point handicap. Every detail and circumstance seems to be against Canada here (aside from the potential rain), so it almost feels like there`s no other choice than to back the All Blacks – and if they won`t cover, we just have to accept the loss as a good bet which happened to not win. Prediction: New Zealand – Canada 76-0.

Pick: New Zealand -66,5
Odds: 1.90 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.10
Event date: 2 October

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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