New Zealand – Ireland

New Zealand will take on Ireland on Saturday in the 2019 Rugby World Cup quarterfinals.

The All Blacks have not played since October 6th, as their last group game against Italy was cancelled due to weather, so they had almost two weeks to prepare for this quarterfinal clash. New Zealand has been excellent in the three matches they played, as you would expect. They started off with a solid 23-13 win in the first game against South Africa, which was their big and only test so far. They followed that up with routine blowouts of Canada (63-0) and Namibia (71-9), which did not tell us anything we didn`t already know.

Ireland entered the World Cup with big hopes and the Shamrocks have been pretty solid in three of the four games they played, impressing against Scotland (27-3) and Samoa (47-5 despite getting a red card in the 30th minute), while the 35-0 over Russia was less impressive, but it was just a routine walk in the park. Unfortunately for Ireland, the one match in which they were bad had huge ramifications. Ireland shockingly lost 12-19 to Japan, conceding the top spot in Pool A, and that has now sent New Zealand in their path.

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Team news & lineups:

There are no new injuries for either side (NZ has none overall), and both coaches will field strong and tested starting XV’s. Having Brodie Retallick back, one of their very few indispensable players, will be a massive boost for the All Blacks.

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Ardie Savea, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 James Ryan, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Cian Healy

After failing to win in the first 28 H2H matches against New Zealand, Ireland turned the tables by actually winning 2 of the last 3 meetings. However, those were late in the season, with New Zealand tired and banged up, while the Irish players were just starting their campaign. Big wins, but this RWC clash will be a different proposition for the Irish.

Ireland has never got past the quarterfinal stage at a World Cup, and it looks like they managed to somehow blow it on the big stage yet again with another golden generation – by failing to win an easy group and thus having to face New Zealand in the quarters.

The Irish generally put on a great display defensively in this tournament, but the offense often looked devoid of ideas for most of the tournament, and a prime example was against Japan. Of course, it was just one game – but a big game, in which the Irish showed some chronic attacking problems. It never looked like a fluke loss.

I will freely admit that my initial thought was Ireland to cover the spread in this clash, but after deeper thought and analysis, the feeling is that New Zealand could run away with it. The Irish looked hopeless when they met a solid, well oiled opponent in the form of Japan – because the win against Scotland doesn`t look that fantastic considering how poor the Scots were in this tournament, as we all saw.

Meanwhile, the All Blacks have been on a tear in this competition and showed what they are about in that win against South Africa. If the All Blacks beat the Boks rather comfortably by 10 (allowing only 13 points), they can definitely be even more dominant against an Irish team which has looked a bit below its best so far.

This has been New Zealand’s World Cup to lose even since 2016, and Ireland can’t realistically hope to challenge them unless they got all their shit stuff tightly together – and they don`t. The point spread is set at just 12,5 points, which is nothing for New Zealand on a good day.

Look for Ireland to struggle to score, especially with Retallick back for New Zealand. As far as the All Blacks are concerned, they will work their usual magic and we know that their attacking versatility will give them a fair number of chances, even against a very good Irish defense.

Weather will be very humid and there`s a very high chance of rain in Chofu. Ireland will likely be happy with the news, as this would favor their style of play. However, the All Blacks have been quite successful in the rain recently, the wet weather seemingly not affecting them.

My tip will be New Zealand to cover the -12,5 point handicap. A higher spread could be tough to cover, but 12,5 is accessible for an in form and healthy All Blacks side. Prediction: New Zealand – Ireland 32 – 13.

Pick: New Zealand -12,5
Odds: 1.94 @ 10Bet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.46
Event date: 19 October