Newcastle – Palace

Newcastle United will be desperate to get a win against Crystal Palace in the 36th Premier League round, as the hosts are in real danger of getting relegated at the end of the season.

Newcastle is a different team since Rafa Benitez took over and the hosts are playing some really good football right now. In the last three matches, Newcastle defeated Swansea 3-0, held Manchester City to a 1-1 draw (could have won) and came back from 0-2 to claim a 2-2 draw in Liverpool. However, despite these excellent results, Newcastle is on the 19th place in the standings, one point behind Norwich and Sunderland, who also have a game in hand.

Crystal Palace is sitting on the 16th place, but the team is safe from relegation and all their focus right now is on the FA Cup final. Palace has 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in the last 6 matches in all competitions and is coming after a 2-1 win over Watford, a result which sent them to Wembley for the last act of the Cup.

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Team news & lineups:

As always, Newcastle has a lengthy list of injuries. Haidara, Coloccini, Krul, Elliot, Janmaat, Taylor, Good and Toney are all out, while Gouffran and Marveaux are questionable. Crystal Palace will not have Chamakh, Hangeland and Appiah in the lineup, while Zaha is a serious doubt.

Newcastle: Darlow – Anita, Mbemba, Lascelles, Dummett – Townsend, Tiote, Colback, Sissoko – Perez – Cisse

Crystal Palace: Hennessey – Ward, Dann, Delaney, Souare – Cabaye, Jedinak – Sako, Bolasie, Puncheon – Wickham

Newcastle is a deserving favorite in this match, they are playing extremely well lately and have a ton of motivation. However, the odds for a home win do seem a little low, as Palace is a very good team. Also, both Newcastle and Palace are very prone to draws recently.

Newcastle is unlikely to lose this match, Benitez’s tactics have made this team very hard to defeat and Palace is not exactly racking up the wins in the last few months. A Newcastle win and a draw seem to have the same probability to happen in my eyes, so with this in mind, the value is on the draw – but I will not bet on it without protection in case of a home win.

As such, my tip here is a draw on the Newcastle win no bet market. The pick is won with a draw and a home win returns the stakes, so we get very good odds for a bet that holds little risk in my eyes – as a Palace win here would make zero sense. Prediction: Newcastle – Crystal Palace 1-1.

Pick: Draw – Newcastle win no bet
Odds: 1.73 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.84
Event date: 30 April