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Local favorite Nick Kyrgios will take on the giant slayer Andreas Seppi in this Australian Open 4th round. Seppi, of course, is coming after the shock win over Federer and will feel he has a chance to record his best ever Grand Slam performance, but Kyrgios is currently the odds favorite with a price of about 1.75.
Kyrgios looks to be improving with each match here at the Australian Open, winning in 5 sets over Delbonis, than in 4 over Karlovic and finally in 3 over Jaziri. The Australian also lost serve just once in the last two matches so in terms of statistics he looks rock solid. I wouldn`t go that far though – while Kyrgios IS playing well, he is not at the level shown at Wimbledon last year, he`s making errors and returning horrible. His serve is at the top level, but he might need more against a player like Seppi – after all he had a very easy draw so far, Karlovic being the only big name, but the Croatian played a rubbish match, like he usually does in Grand Slams.
I was shocked with Seppi’s win over Federer, I never saw that coming after Andreas lost his previous 10 meetings with Roger, winning just 1 set. Also Seppi was not exactly at the top of his game until the 3rd round – he was playing well this year, but not spectacular. Against Federer however he was impecable, serving lights out and barely making any errors. The most impressive thing was his mental strength, able to mantain and even increase his level to close out the match when Federer was pushing back.
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Kyrgios won the only meeting between the two, a 6-4 7-6 6-4 success at last years` US Open. He dominated that match but there were different circumstances back than. Overall I don`t feel that any player holds a matchup advantage.
I fancy Seppi to win this one and I`m not surprised that the odds on him are dropping. Usually players of his caliber suffer a letdown after a big win, but surely it won’t be the case today – firstly, Seppi is famous for his consistency and second, we`re already in the 4th round, so it was not just a fluke performance very early in the tournament. I can see Andreas playing at the same level today and if he`ll do that, he`ll win. Kyrgios is not as solid as the statistics suggest, he`s playing poor return games and making a fair number of errors (should have lost a set against Jaziri), so that should fall right into Seppi’s lap, with the Italian being one of the best baseliners on tour in terms of consistency and defending big shots. The Italian will also benefit from meeting players somewhat similar to Kyrgios so far, I`m talking about solid servers with big forehands: Istomin, Chardy and Federer.
My tip is Seppi to win. As I sidenote I`m also thinking about the fact that players who took part in the asian friendly tour over the winter seem to suffer right now, so maybe that will also be the cae with Kyrgios – but I`m not counting on that, of course. Prediction: Nick Kyrgios – Andreas Seppi 4-6 7-6 6-7 3-6.
Pick: Seppi win
Odds: 2.10 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.80
Event date: 25 January
