Kyrgios – Ferrer

Nick Kyrgios will meet a rejuvenated David Ferrer in the ATP Cincinnati semifinals, with the Australian star being rated as a ~ 1.40 odds favorite by the bookmakers.

After struggling a bit with minor injuries post Wimbledon, Nick Kyrgios came to Cincinnati fully healthy and managed to produce some of the best tenis of his career during this week. The Australian got past Goffin, Dolgopolov, Karlovic and Nadal, often looking dominant. He lost a single set in the rain delayed match against Karlovic, but he won that match and went on to easily defeat Nadal in quarters, 6-2 7-5.

Ferrer’s semifinal showing here in Cincy is really surprising, given that the Spaniard has looked way past his best this season, and Cincinnati is not normally a good place for him to play, due to the courts being very fast. Nevertheless, Ferrer has managed to regain some of his old form, and there were actually signs of this last week in Montreal, where he reached the Round 16 and took a set from Federer. Good form but also a weak draw allowed him to reach this stage, as he defeated Johnson, Tipsarevic, Carreno-Busta and Thiem, losing sets against the first two.

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The H2H is 1-0 for Ferrer, but his win came way back in 2013 at the US Open, so it holds no relevance. It will be a contrast between Kyrgios’ aggressive style of play and Ferrer’s baseline grinding, with the fast surface clearly being a big advantage for Kyrgios here.

You have to feel that Nick is an overwhelming favorite in this match, perhaps an even bigger one than the odds suggest.

The Australian played really good tennis all week, his serve worked very well and we didn`t quite see the fluctuations he sometimes has in this game. Nick has been consistent, and the way he dispatched Nadal in the quarters was pretty impressive. There`s no reason to believe things will be different against Ferrer, who is basically a poor man’s Nadal.

Credit to the Spaniard for making this impressive push on the backend of his career, and he is clearly playing well, but he`s not dominant. He struggled in the first two rounds, then he met Carreno Busta who seemed tired and off his game. The 6-3 6-3 quarterfinal win against Thiem was nice, but Thiem has been poor after the clay court season, and he`s not that dangerous on fast courts like the ones here in Cincinnati.

Kyrgios is the better and younger player right now, he has played better tennis this week and he has showed consistency, especially on serve. He should also be ready for Ferrer’s game after playing Nadal less than 24 hours ago.

One thing that could work against Nick Kyrgios is the fact that he played two matches yesterday. That shouldn`t be a concern given his age, plus the Karlovic match wasn`t that tiring, but it must be taken into account that Nick had a few minor injuries in the last 5-6 weeks, so that could maybe represent a small danger.

However, Kyrgios showed no sign of injury or fatigue this week, so I think the risk of him suffering after his 2 matches yesterday is very low. I am satisfied with the odds given for a bet on the Australian to edge this match, so my tip will be Kyrgios to win. I am confident enough to go with max stakes here. Prediction: Nick Kyrgios – David Ferrer 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Kyrgios
Odds: 1.42 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 4.20
Event date: 19 August