Kyrgios – Djokovic

We will have a full tennis day again as Indian Wells gets the round of 16 under way. Today`s pick will be again an underdog, whose chances I see more likely to be close to evens.

Kyrgios, no. 16 in ATP rankings, takes on Novak Djokovic, no. 2 in the rankings, in the second match to be played on center court. Kyrgios is an erratic and moody player, but one that can defeat anybody on his day. His results in the past show exactly that. He has wins over Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, Murray (Hopman Cup) and Wawrinka. He proved to be a top player despite being just 21 years old. At 1.93m height he has the serve (top 5 serve in ATP for sure), but he has also some weird combo between power, angles and movement. All these qualities are available, but his main problem is in his head – if he has no motivation none of those quality will see the light.

These two players had one direct H2H meeting and that one was played in Acapulco, this month, where Kyrgios won 7-6 7-5. That match was amazing as Kyrgios won 12 out of 12 service games and won 1/12 return games. He hit 25 aces and 1 DF, had to save 1 BP and converted the only BP that he had. Kyrgios had a better 1st serve % (73 v 66), more 1st serves won (81% v 76%) and more 2nd serve won (75% v 71%). Everything was in favor of Kyrgios.

Kyrgios played Zeballos and Zverev so far in Indian Wells and was broken 0 times!! Had to face 3 BPs, which he saved relatively easy. He broke serve twice against Zeballos (big server) and 3 times against Zverev (also good server). Pretty good stats.

Djokovic looked like a shell of himself in the past months and the results are visible. He lost to Bautista, Cilic, Murray, Istomin and Kyrgios in his last tournaments played. He won here in California against Edmund and Del Potro. He got broken twice by Edmund (poor returner) and broke him just 3 times. He got broken 3 times by Del Potro and broke him 5 times.

All in all I see this match as a closer one than the odds suggest and that makes me get big on Kyrgios, with the hope that the Aussie will be fully focused and motivated. We know Kyrgios can defeat the best in business and we also know that he ain`t afraid of any of the top men.

Pick: Kyrgios
Odds: 3.25 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 18
Event date: 15 March