Djokovic – Nadal

The 2019 Australian Open final will feature two players which have clearly been the best in the tournament, and it should be a brilliant clash between rivals Novak Djokovic and Rafa Nadal.

Djokovic hasn`t necessarily been at his best over these two weeks. The Serb navigated casually through a very easy draw, also benefiting from Nishikori`s retirement in the quarters. He lost two sets along the way (Shapovalov, Medvedev), but won both those matches rather easily. Novak had his best performance of the tournament in the semis, absolutely demolishing Pouille 6-0 6-2 6-2. While Pouille did not bring the level of tennis required for a Slam semifinal, it was still a big statement from Djokovic ahead of the final.

Nadal has been flawless in this tournament. There were questions over the Spaniard’s fitness before Melbourne, but he completely shook those off pretty early. Nadal did not lose a set in the entire tournament (also only played a single tiebreak) despite having a pretty difficult draw with a couple of dangerous players. He defeated Duckworth, Ebden, De Minaur, Berdych, Tiafoe and Tsitsipas to reach the final, and the most impressive thing about him has been the highly improved serve.

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Djokovic leads the H2H 27-25, but more importantly he leads 18-7 on hard courts. Djokovic also won the previous 7 meetings on hard and the previous 14 (!!!) sets on hard courts. It has been quite a few years now since Djokovic acquired an edge in the matchup with Nadal, who hasn`t been able to even take a set from Nole on hard courts since 2013.

The last time these two met at the Australian Open, they played the longest ever final at almost 6 hours in 2012, with Djokovic winning in five sets.

Nadal has played the better tennis so far in this tournament, but Djokovic also looked sharp in the semifinals, this is his favorite hunting ground, and most importantly he had Nadal`s number over the past few years aside from clay courts. Looking at the previous meetings on this surface, Nadal should be worried, but he will hope that his new and improved serve will be a game changer – and it`s quite possible that it will.

It`s hard to see either player winning this in straight sets. Even if Djokovic won 14 consecutive sets on hard courts against Nadal, neither of those were in a Grand Slam, and this version of Nadal is better. And, as previously said, Rafa did play the better tennis overall in this tournament.

Weather should be around 20 something degrees Celcius with no rain, so the roof should be left open. That shouldn`t necessarily be an advantage for anybody, but Rafa will be happy, as a closed roof would have probably been an edge for Djokovic.

Look for another classic clash between this two, and we know for sure that nobody will go down without a fight. As such, we can expect more than 3 sets and probably a long match.

The bookies did their job well by setting the under / over at 42,5 games, which is probably the perfect line – as it might or might not need 5 sets to go over. The safer bet is definitely over 3,5 sets and even though the odds are not that great at around 1.40, I`d say they actually hold more value than betting the over.

I won`t be greedy and I will be satisfied with these odds here on over 3,5 sets. I probably wouldn`t go lower than 1.40 though. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Rafael Nadal 6-3 6-7 4-6 6-2 6-4.

Pick: over 3,5 sets
Odds: 1.45 @ 22Bet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.05
Event date: 27 January