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The ATP event in Dubai will have a fantastic final once again, with rivals Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer set to square off for the title.
Djokovic has been nothing short of brilliant since the Australian Open, playing his absolute best tennis. He cruised here in Dubai against rather easy opponents in the first three rounds but had some unexpected problems against Berdych in the semis. Nole started off as strong as possible, winning the first set 6-0, but went on to show some weaknesses in the second one, losing 7-5. He eventually finished things off in the third set, but the result raises some questionmarks – especially considering the matchup, as Djokovic always blows Berdych off the court.
Federer continues to play at the highest level this year and if we discount the 3rd round exit at the Australian Open, he actually has a 10-0 record this year. Fedex did not lose a set here in Dubai, winning against Youzhny, Verdasco, Gasquet and Coric – not the easiest schedule for an ATP 500 tournament. All in all Federer is at a very good level right now, but there`s a feeling that he`s a little bit shaky and can go into ‘unforced error mood’ if things don`t go his way against a red hot, in form opponent – like it happened at the Australian Open.
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The Head 2 Head reads a 19-17 advantage for Roger Federer, actually 19-16 if we discard last years` walkover by Djokovic at the World Tour finals. Last year it was 2-2 and on hard courts Federer leads the Head 2 Head 14-13. It`s well known that Federer knows how to play Djokovic effectively, the Serbian is his favorite opponent from the Top 4 and Roger usually beats him when he`s in his best form – able to play aggressive and cut down the errors. All in all Roger has a slight matchup advantage, but not a big one and form is usually the key factor in deciding the matches between these two superstars.
This looks like a hard one to call, I would give Djokovic the edge because of his super consistent season, but 1.50 seems a bit low. Federer seems ready to take on the Djoker and we could well see a thriller today in Dubai. Look for both guys to have their period of dominance and it`s likely that we will see 3 sets. The under/over line is very low at 22,5 and the over can be realistically covered even in two sets, so I will bet on that.
My tip is over 22,5 games. Odds are going down on this bet and I`m not at all surprised by the price movement. High stakes for me, I reckon the line will be closer to 23,5 games by match time. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Roger Federer 6-7 6-3 6-4.
Pick: over 22,5 games
Odds: 1.76 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.84
Event date: 28 February
