Djokovic – Wawrinka

Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka will square off in the Australian Open semis in a repeat of last years’ quarterfinal, with Nole surely hoping for a different turn of events this time around.

Djokovic was pretty much faultless in this tournament, he is yet to lose a set so far and particularly his performance against Raonic in the quarters was massive. After a tight first set, Djokovic simply dismantled Milos’ serve and it simply looked impossible for the Serbian to make an unforced error. Things really look to be in Djokovic’s favor here – he`s playing his best tennis, he`s amazingly consistent and he`s at his favorite Grand Slam. But this will be by far his toughest match yet, as Wawrinka gave him huge trouble in the past 2 years in Grand Slam events, twice at the Australian Open.

Stan was a little shaky in the first week, he almost lost a set to Copil and was really challenged by Garcia Lopez, but he raised his level in the quarters to dispatch an in-form Nishikori in 3 sets. The Swiss has learned how to improve round by round in Grand Slam and nothing short of his best tennis is expected against Djokovic. He does need to cut down his unforced errors though – Stan hit 46 winners against Nishikori, but also made 34 unforced errors – a high number for a three setter he dominated.

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Djokovic leads the Head 2 Head 16-3 (11-2 on hard courts), but Wawrinka really stepped up his game in the last 2 years and the last three Grand Slam meetings were all 5 sets thrillers – including Stan’s win here in Melbourne last year. When the Swiss is in form, he really has the weapons to beat Djokovic, he can run him around the court in an aggresive mode – it`s a very similar case with the Djokovic – Federer Head 2 Head.

Wawrinka should be able to take a set from Nole here. The Serbian is playing amazing tennis and I`m pretty sure he will win this, but Wawrinka pushed him to the limit in the last three Grand Slam meetings and he has the form and the game to do it again, or at least get close to doing it again. Look for Stan to have one or two sets of brilliance, painting the lines and that will be enough to snatch at least one away from the Serbian – but in the end Djokovic’s consistency will be too much and Nole will go through to the final.

My tip here is on the under over line, I`m going with the over 36,5 games which should be easily covered in 4 sets (can also happen in 3, but unlikely and I expect 4). Odds on Stan are dropping right now. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Stan Wawrinka 6-4 3-6 6-2 7-6.

Pick: over 36,5 games
Odds: 1.80 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.40
Event date: 30 January