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Novak Djokovic takes on Tomas Berdych in the Toronto quarterfinals, with Nole seeking his 21st consecutive victory over Berdych on hard courts.
Djokovic came back strong this week after his 3rd round exit at Wimbledon, with the Serbain routing Muller (7-5 7-6) and Stepanek (6-2 6-4) in straight sets. Nole seems to be back at his best, which was expected considering the kind of season he had.
Berdych entered Toronto fresh off a semifinal showing at Wimbledon, but his form might be a bit misleading – not as great as results suggest. Tomas had a very easy schedule at Wimbledon and was dismantles by Murray in the semis, while here in Toronto he lost a set against both Coric and Harrison. Despite not being the strongest opponents, those two were able to put Berdych under serious pressure at times. Sure, Coric and Harrison played very well, but Berdych did show weaknesses this week and plenty of them.
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Djokovic leads the Head 2 Head 24-2 (20-0 on hard!) and it`s no secret that his style is almost impossible for Berdych to figure out. Nole`s magnificent defense forces Berdych to take higher and higher risks and even in his best form, Tomas still ends up losing steam as the match goes on, with errors creeping in his game.
With Berdych not playing his absolute best tennis this week, it`s difficult to see him challenging Djokovic. If Nole stays solid (and there`s no reason to expect otherwise), he should again frustrate Berdych with his defense, edging him in long rallies and making it almost impossible for Tomas to find solutions.
Between Djokovic’s excellent form, Berdych’s inconsistency this week and the H2H, I believe Nole should have enough for a comfortable win here. One more break per set for Nole seems like a very reasonable thing to expect.
One thing we have to consider is that Djokovic will take part in the Rio Olympics and Berdych won’t, so there can be a case made that Tomas is the more motivated player in this clash. Personally, I don`t buy it, I`m confident Nole will give his 100%, but that`s something each man must evaluate and decide for himself.
The game handicap line stands at 5, but I recommend buying a point for extra safety, despite the odds being in the 1.55 region. Scores like 7-6 6-3 or an unlucky 6-4 6-4 in case Berdych wins the coin toss are not out of the question.
I won`t be too greedy, so I will tip Djokovic to cover the 4 game handicap here – a bet which would have been a winner in 3 of the last 4 Head 2 Head meetings, the other one being void. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Tomas Berdych 7-5 6-2.
Pick: Djokovic -4
Odds: 1.53 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 4.24
Event date: 29 July
