Thunder – Warriors

Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors preview 20 March

The Warriors will attempt to sweep the regular season series against Oklahoma City, but this time they will have to do it without Kevin Durant, still out after spraining his knee a few weeks ago.

Oklahoma City (40-29, 26-9 home) is in pretty good shape right now and if they keep up this form they could climb as high as the 5th or even 4th seed in the Western Conference. After making a couple of moves at the trade deadline OKC struggled a little bit, but is now playing better than ever and is riding a 5 game winning streak – beating the likes of San Antonio and Utah, mostly due to the continuing amazing play of Russel Westbrook.

The Warriors (55-14, 26-10 away) were cruising towards the 1st seed in the Western Conference until Kevin Durant got injured a couple of weeks ago. Golden State struggled big time to find its rhythm without KD, losing 5 out of 7 games, while Steph Curry and Klay Thompson went trough an unprecedented shooting slump. However, the Warriors have began to regain their rhytm lately and won 3 games in a row, playing better and better in each one – albeit they were all at home.

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After Golden State struggled when Kevin Durant came down, there was huge overreaction in the media, as it is always the case. They were expected to lose the number 1 seed, but they are currently still 2.5 games ahead of the San Antonio Spurs.

Golden State was an all time great team last year without Kevin Durant and even if they lost important bench pieces to sign him and are not the same team, they are still excellent even without KD. It was always going to take some time for them to re-adjust the way they play when he went down and it looks like they finally managed to do it.

Steph Curry ended his slump in the last game against Milwaukee and the Warriors played an all around fantastic game, beating a good team by 25 points. They are in good shape and will feel confident taking their talents back on the road.

OKC is playing well, no doubt about that, and Russell Westbrook is on a mission to win the MVP title. Nevertheless, they are not as good as their recent record suggests, they are still mostly a one man team and you have to feel they are due a loss pretty soon. They will feel a lot of pressure to beat a Durant – less Warriors and that might affect them.

The Warriors simply destroyed OKC in the three meetings this year, winning by 26, 21 and 16 points respectively. Obviously that was with Kevin Durant in the lineup and OKC wasn`t playing quite as good as they are right now. However, Golden State also won all three meetings played in the regular season last year, as well as defeating OKC in the 2016 Conference finals – when KD was playing for the Thunder.

Earlier this season the Warriors were 1.30 favorites to win in OKC, so I find the current 1.80 – 1.85 odds to be crazy good, a result of the general overreaction to Durant’s injury. The Warriors sorted their gameplan problems, Curry and Thompson are back shooting lights out and Golden State should continue their H2H dominance over OKC.

Golden State’s ball moving brand of offense should prove too much for Westbrook’s hero ball. When it`s all said and done, fact is that the Warriors (even without KD) are the better team and the matchup is favorable to them according to the H2H (OKC’s only egde is on the boards). Finally, the overreaction to KD’s injury determines odds higher than they should be on Golden State, creating value.

Look for a good game, but I fully see the Warriors coming out on top. My tip is Warriors to cover the -2 point spread. Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder – Golden State Warriors 106 – 114.

Pick: Warriors -2
Odds: 2.09 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8.72
Event date: 20 March

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

2 comments

  1. You just keep killing it!

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