Panathinaikos – Celta

A win might not be enough for Celta Vigo to qualify from the Europa League Group G, but would give them a very good chance of doing so. Celta is tied with Standard Liege for the second place and they are tied in H2H results as well, but Standard has a better goal difference by just one goal (7-5 vs 8-7). Celta needs to claim a better result than Standard does against Ajax. If both teams win, Celta needs to win by 1 more goal than Standard does.

Panathinaikos is in a bad spot right now. The hosts claimed just 1 point in this Europa League group and their recent performances have been dreadful in all competitions. Panata has 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses in the last 6 matches overall, with a 3-11 goal difference (which is also their goal difference in the Europa League). Their only win came last weekend at home against a PAOK Salonic side that was thinking about their crucial Europa League match against Slovan Liberec. Still, it was an important match and a good win for PAO.

Celta Vigo is in good form, winning 2 of the last 3 matches and drawing 3-3 away at Betis over the weekend. However, they failed to win any of their last 3 Europa League matches, claiming just 2 points despite playing twice at home and falling to the third spot in the standings. The Spaniards really need to go for it today, as Standard will be a favorite at home against an already qualified Ajax Amsterdam team.

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Both sides like to mostly play offensive minded football and the defense of Panathinaikos has been particularly poor in recent weeks.

While Panathinaikos has no pressure and can play freely, Celta needs to win this game and they might well need to win it by more than 1 goal. This matchup should result in an open game with lots of goal scoring chances. Neither team has any reason to be extra cautious and that is not in their DNA anyway, so I can see an entertaining clash with good attacking football and a lot of counters, especially late in the game.

Odds on Celta Vigo to win are dropping big time, but I Celta`s need to win is influencing the price too much. The visitors should be able to edge this, but a bet on goals makes more sense in my eyes considering all the above presented factors.

In the previous meeting in this Europa League group, Celta Vigo won 2-0 at home via two late goals and it wasn`t necessarily a spectacular match, but circumstances are obviously completely different this time around.

All in all, my tip here will be over 2,5 goals. Odds are dropping on this bet as well and it`s not exactly a surprise. Prediction: Panathinaikos – Celta Vigo 1-2.

Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.96 @ MrRingo
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.72
Event date: 8 December