Lorenzi – Ymer

Paolo Lorenzi Elias Ymer prediction

Paolo Lorenzi will take on young gun Elias Ymer in the first round at Estoril, an ATP 250 tournament played in Portugal, on red clay.

Lorenzi is having a very solid season so far and he continued to play well since the European clay court season started. This is his favorite time of the year and Paolo did not disappoint in his last two tournaments. He lost to Monfils in Monte Carlo after defeating Fognini and reached the quarterfinals last week at the Nastase Tiriac trophy. I watched him in Bucharest and he played some really good tennis, defeating Schwartzmann and Daniel in straight sets before losing a very tight three setter against eventual finalist Pouille. Some very steady tennis from Lorenzi, classic clay court style, very consistent from the baseline.

Ymer is also in good short term form, winning 7 of the last 8 matches he played, but doing it an an inferior level. The 20 year old won the Barletta challenger two weeks ago, lost against De Bakker in the Barcelona first round last week and claimed two wins in the qualifiers here in Estoril. However, he did not look particularly impressive, needing 3 sets to defeat both Machado and Skugor.

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Lorenzi leads the H2H 1-0, an easy win for him back in 2014 on the same surface, but Ymer was only a teenager back then. Both players love the red dirt, so the surface will not be a deciding factor here.

Lorenzi played great tennis and has been very consistent all season, including lately. He is not giving away too many free points and if he plays like he did in Bucharest, I can`t see him losing here. I do expect him to play at the same level, considering that he did not have many ups and downs this season, essentially playing the same tennis week in week out.

Ymer racked up the wins in the last few weeks, but did it against poor opposition. He did not defeat a single Top 100 player and has not been impressive in qualifying here in Estoril. Ymer will have a very tough time against a Top 50 clay court specialist who is in great form and does not give away free points. A lot of rallies will be on offer, with the young Swede expected to miss first in most of them, most often due to Lorenzi forcing errors from him, as Paolo is able to turn defense into offense instantly.

I expect Lorenzi to continue his solid run with a win here, most likely in 2 sets, but I will keep my bet simple, because the odds are good enough on the straigt victory. My tip is Lorenzi to win. Prediction: Paolo Lorenzi – Elias Ymer 6-2 6-4.

Pick: Lorenzi
Odds: 1.59 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.31
Event date: 26 April

photo credits: hotnews.ro

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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