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Italian Paolo Lorenzi and Nick Kyrgios from Australia will square off in the second round of the Rogers Cup, held on hard courts in Montreal.
Paolo Lorenzi didn`t enter the Rogers Cup with high hopes, as he is a natural clay courter and hasn`t been able to adapt to hard over the course of his career. Not only is Lorenzi very poor on the surface, but he arrived in Canada straight from the European clay, with little to no preparation on the surface, and also looked a bit injured in his last match against Sousa in Kitzbuhel. Nevertheless, Lorenzi managed to claim a rather surprising win against Tiafoe in the first round here (7-6 0-6 6-2).
Kyrgios struggled with injuries in the last few weeks, retiring in both of his last two matches prior to Canada – against Herbert at Wimbledon and against Sandgren at Washington. There were some questionmarks about his fitness coming into the Rogers Cup, but Nick blew them away with a dominating performance in the first round against Troicki, winning 6-1 6-2.
Bet on Lorenzi vs. Kyrgios and claim your 100% (100 Eur) free bet at Ohmbet now!This will be the first meeting between Lorenzi and Kyrgios. The surface will obviously represent a massive advantage for the Australian.
Lorenzi`s first round win against Tiafoe was a surprise, but fact is that Lorenzi barely beat a player who lost 8 of his last 9 matches! It was also more of a case of Tiafoe beating himself, as he is a real headcase and that can be seen in the 7-6 0-6 6-2 score. THe sheer fact that Lorenzi had odds of almost 3.00 against a guy like Tiafoe tells the story of his futility on hard courts.
In normal circumstances, Kyrgios should have no problems annihilating Lorenzi here, dominating the clay courter with his big and powerful shots. There could also be some serious wind come game time, and if that happens Kyrgios will have an advantage with his flat, heavy groundstrokes, as opposed to Lorenzi’s rather weak top spin shots.
The only thing which works against Kyrgios here is his recent lack of activity, so there could be a danger of his level varying a bit throughout the match. However, that hasn`t happened in the first round against Troicki. Nick Kyrgios seems to be healthy and confident this week on a surface which suits his game very well.
I don`t expect much from Lorenzi here and he should be overwhelmed by the power of Nick Kyrgios. The question for me is whether to bet on a handicap, on the under 20,5 games line, or on the straight sets win (which seems to be the safest pick, but at odds of just ~ 1.55).
All in all, I think betting on the under is in agreement with my analysis. This bet offers the best odds from the three options presented above, and I reckon Kyrgios should be able to earn one extra break per set than Lorenzi in order to make the bet a winner. My tip here is under 20,5 games to be played. Prediction: Paolo Lorenzi – Nick Kyrgios 3-6 4-6.
Pick: under 20,5 games
Odds: 1.92 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.28
Event date: 8 August
