Suns – Mavericks

Luka Doncic Dallas Mavericks NBA

The Phoenix Suns will host the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night / Thursday morning in what will be the NBA season opener for both teams.

The Suns have been the worst team in the NBA last year, posting an abysmal 21-61 record, and they will surely be bad again this year. Nevertheless, an improvement is expected, as they drafted DeAndre Ayton with the No.1 pick, added Trevor Ariza as a solid option on the wing, and also hired a new coach in the form of Igor Kokoskov. The main objective for Phoenix will be to improve their defense, as they allowed an incredible 113.3 points per game last season.

After two seasons in which they were one of the worst sides in the league, the Mavs are expected to be much better this season, and maybe get involved in the race for the postseason. The Mavs added DeAndre Jordan at center and got probably the best player in the draft with their No.3 pick, Luka Doncic from Real Madrid. With last year`s draft pick Dennis Smith Jr also expected to improve, the Mavs have reason for optimism.

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Team news: The Suns have a full roster available while the Mavs will miss Harrison Barnes and Dirk Nowitzki.

I would have gone with the Mavs here, as they are the better team and are definitely a bit underrated coming into this season. However, the absences of Barnes and Dirk will make it hard for them to win on the road against a Phoenix team which will not be as bad as last year.

Instead, I am liking the points total on Luka Doncic here.

The rookie, Doncic, is the best prospect to ever come from Europe, as his resume at 19 years of age almost already places him in the basketball Hall of Fame: Eurobasket champion, Eurobasket team of the tournament, Euroleague champion, Euroleague MVP, Euroleague Final Four MVP, three time Spanish league champion, Spanish League MVP, and the accolades go on and on.

Doncic should have been the No.1 pick in this draft, but his stock dropped mainly just because of him being European, and he was chosen at No.3. His nationality alone has made him underrated entering the draft, and makes him underrated entering the season. There IS indeed a lot of hype about him coming into the season, but more like a curiosity as opposed to him being viewed as the generational talent and franchise player he could be.

Doncic has been dubbed as a tremendous passer in NBA circles and that is true, but his scoring capabilities have been mostly looked upon. Fact is that he is a scorer just as much as he is a facilitator. Luka averaged 16 points per game in the Euroleague last season, a league in which it`s harder to put up personal numbers than in the NBA. Of course, there`s a much higher level in the NBA, but also more minutes for each player, and a more individual – based approach to the game.

In the preseason Doncic averaged 15 points per game in less than 30 minutes per game. He`s likely to see over 30 minutes tonight.

With the above in mind, the 14.5 point total set for Luka Doncic seems fair. However, there are two factors which actually create value on this line.

First of all, the Suns are a dreadful defensive team. They should be better than last year with the addition of Ariza, but they are still expected to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The points total is set around 215 points, so a pretty high scoring game is expected. Secondly, the Mavs miss Barnes and Nowitzki, which will give Doncic much more opportunities to shoot. He and Dennis Smith Jr will be the two main scoring options for Dallas.

All in all, my tip here will be Luka Doncic to score over 14.5 points, I can see him finishing with 18 or so. This being his first NBA game shouldn`t faze him, as he is a proven winner and clutch player. Prediction: Phoenix Suns – Dallas Mavericks 111 – 110.

Pick: Doncic over 14,5 points
Odds: 2.00 @ Betfair Sportsbook
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 8
Event date: 18 October

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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