Blazers – Warriors

Warriors Blazers Game 3 betting preview

Golden State Warriors will try to go up 3-0 as this Western Conference quarterfinal series moves to Portland, but they might have to win again without Durant, who is questionable for Game 3.

Top seeded Warriors have been dominant so far in this series, winning Game 1 by 12 despite facing insane shooting nights from McCollum and Lillard, and winning Game 2 by 29 points without Kevin Durant and Shaun Livingston. They are currently in fine form and looking likely to win their second NBA championship in 3 years.

The 8th seeded Blazers have been unable to find any answers for Golden State’s offense in the first two games, even if Curry, Durant or Thompson never quite got hot for GS. What’s more, the Warriors defense completely shut down Portland’s offense in Game 2 after some adjustments made by Steve Kerr, and right now it`s looking unlikely for Portland to even win a game in this series.

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Team news:

Trailblazers: Portland has missed Nurkic in the last few weeks, after he had a big impact when the Blazers signed him at the trade deadline. Nurkic has been announced doubtful for this Game 3, but it`s highly unlikely he will play and even in the absolute best case scenario he would be very limited in minutes.

Warriors: Kevin Durant is questionable for this game. While there`s definitely a chance he could play, you would expect him not to. Even if he recovers to be fully fit, there`s no reason for Golden State to force him right back, as they are in a commanding position in the series and should win it comfortably with or without him. Backup PG Livingston is also doubtful for the Warriors, after missing Game 2 himself.

Looking at the odds and the point spread, bookies seem to also feel that KD will not play. The point spread is at just 6 points here, with the Warriors having odds as high as ~ 1.45 for the straight win. As usual, the bookies are overestimating the impact of Durant.

It has been a fact that, as great as KD is, Golden State has played better without him this season. They just click better together without him, with Steph Curry being able to play his game without having do try and get KD involved, while other players like Iguodala re-emerge as well. This has been validated both by stats and by the eye test.

Golden State is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 matches without Durant, which means they covered the spread 11 out of 14 times (!!), with one being a push. They beat the Blazers by 12 with Durant (Game 1) and by 29 without Durant (Game 2).

In these conditions, it`s amazing that Durant’s potential absence actually provides better odds for Golden State, when in fact the price should stay the same. Durant’s absence is lowering the spread by at least 2-3 points here, and him being out always creates value on the Warriors.

The above being said, Warriors should win this with or without Durant. Even if he does come back to play, it shouldn`t hurt Golden State’s chances to win, or even to cover the rather low spread. What’s more, if he does play, odds will plummet on Warriors, creating cashout opportunities for those who feel like it.

Fact is that not only is Golden State a far superior team to Portland, they also match up very well against them. They play a similar style of basketball, but Warriors simply have (much) better players and are more cohesive.

The Warriors won the last 8 meetings against Portland and only one was by less than 8 points – when Curry did not play. The margins of victory for GS in the last 8 games against Portland have been 16, 25, 23, 45, 8, 2, 12 and 29 points!

I was thinking to take the straight win here for extra safety, but I think the best value is on the handicap so I am comfortable backing it with maximum stakes, taking an extra risk for much better odds. My tip is Warriors to cover the 6 point spread. Prediction: Portland Trailblazers – Golden State Warriors 105 – 119.

Pick: Warriors -6
Odds: 1.98 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.80
Event date: 23 April

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

2 comments

  1. Warriors -6 tonight. What do you think?

    • I do think Warriors will cover, but I`m not as confident as I was last time.
       
      – Nurkic will probably have a bigger impact for POR
       
      – Durant might play for GS and they don`t usually cover the handicap when he`s on the court
       
      – Now GS has a comfortable cushion and could be a bit more relaxed
       
      But, again, I do think the series will be over tonight and I think they`ll win by about 10. Sorry for the late reply.

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