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Trailblazers – Warriors



Blazers Warriors Game 4 handicapping

The Portland Trailblazers will try to avoid a sweep in the Western Conference finals when they host the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 on Monday night.

The Blazers (3rd seed) lost the first two games in Oakland, and faced a must win situation at home in Game 3. For the second time in a row they led by more than 15 points (this time 18, late in the second quarter) and couldn`t get the job done. The Warriors pulled off another second half comeback and won by 11, essentially putting an end to Portland`s hopes of reaching the NBA finals.

The Warriors (top seed) are just rolling casually without Kevin Durant, proving they were already one of the best teams in basketball history before he joined them. They are steamrolling everybody since KD went down, and Steph, Klay and Draymond are playing exceptional basketball. The team looks unstoppable and a sweep of the Blazers looks entirely possible tonight.

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Team news: Besides the old absences of Cousins and Durant, the Warriors also have Iguodala questionable in this game. As a personal opinion, I think he will not play, so I will make my analysis presuming he will be out. The Blazers are still without Nurkic, while their star man Lillard is reportedly playing through separated ribs. He will play, but he`ll likely continue to struggle, as he did all series.

Since Kevin Durant got injured five games ago, I have been continuously saying what I have been saying many times since he joined the Warriors: the Warriors are vastly underrated by the bookies and the public without KD, and they are a goldmine for bettors.

This team is better without Kevin Durant, barring certain matchups. When they have to face a dominant wing player (Lebron, Kawhi, Giannis), KD can make them better. Against a team like the Blazers which relies on two small guards, the Warriors are better without Durant! They are 33-4 when KD doesn`t play and Curry does. They are 31-1 in the last 32 games in this situation. They are 6-0 in the playoffs, and 4-0 in this year`s playoffs. They have a rate of covering the spread around 70%, and did it 3 times out of 4 in these playoffs.

That being said, the bookies have done a better job this time around by setting the odds. The Warriors were 3 point underdogs in game 3 (madness), but now more realistic odds have been set, with the Warriors as 3 point favorites (especially considering Iguodala will likely be out).

However, I still like the Warriors to win and sweep this series. The Blazers must be absolutely devastated after blowing a 17 point lead and an 18 point lead in two consecutive games. Now their chances are basically zero, and their morale must be shot.

Meanwhile, the Warriors are confident, flying high, and will want to end this as soon as possible in order to get more rest ahead of the finals – something they badly need with some key players injured and the other stars having to play heavy minutes. Draymond Green stated this himself. Also, the Warriors have a history of finishing the job off with a sweep when leading 3-0. So you can expect them to come out firing.

The Blazers are no match for these Warriors, the matchup is just not good for them. It`s hard to believe a defeated and disheartened Blazers team will hand the Warriors only their 2nd loss in the last 34 games (!!) when Curry plays and Durant does not. Yes, Iguodala`s absence will be a blow for the Dubs, but they came back on Saturday night without him, so they proved he is replaceable in this series.

I`m going to keep on riding with the Warriors, and I will back them to win this game. They may well cover the spread, but I`m satisfied to take the straight win this time around for a bit more safety. Odds are currently going up on the Dubs, so maybe you want to wait a little bit more before placing the bet, see if you can get a better price. Prediction: Portland Trailblazers – Golden State Warriors 105 – 110.

Pick: Warriors
Odds: 1.71 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.68
Event date: 21 May

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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