Nadal – Gasquet

Rafa Nadal and Richard Gasquet will square off in the last match of the day at Cincinnati, with Nadal having completely dominated the matchup against the Frenchman over the years.

Nadal slowed down after winning the French Open, failing to reach the semifinals in any of his next three tournaments – including the Rogers Cup last week, where he lost to the teenage sensation Shapovalov. Nevertheless, Nadal will recapture the No.1 ranking next week after Federer and Murray both withdrew from Cincinnati, so the Spaniard will hope to celebrate that achievement with a good performance here in Cincy.

Richard Gasquet had a rather disappointing season and his short term form isn`t much better either. The Frenchman had lost 3 of his last 4 matches before Cincinnati, but he bounced back with a solid 6-4 6-4 win over Smith here in the first round. Last week at Montreal Gasquet reached the second round – he was poor in his opener against Schnur, but played one of his best matches of the year in the second round against Alex Zverev, losing a tight 3 setter after holding a match point.

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Nadal leads the H2H 14-1 and has not lost a set to Gasquet in the previous 9 meetings! Gasquet`s only win was in their first meeting in a challenger in 2003, when Nadal retired. The last time Richard took a set from Rafa was way back in 2008 at Toronto and even that was eventually a blowout (6-7 6-2 6-1 for Rafa). It`s clear as day that Nadal has Gasquet`s number.

Gasquet’s style is simply not suited to take on Nadal, and the Frenchman often finds himself with no solution to win points on a consistent basis against the Spaniard. Nadal abuses his one handed backhand, much like he used to do with Federer, and forces Gasquet out of his comfort zone.

Cincinnati has been one of Rafa’s worst tournaments over the years and the fast courts here will give Gasquet a bit of an advantage, but the matchup might be too one sided for him to overcome. What`s more, Gasquet is not even in some kind of great form, so it`s hard to see him getting past the matchup disadvantage when he`s not even playing his best tennis.

Styles make matches, and Rafa should use that to his advantage for a relatively straightforward win, as he will surely be motivated not to lose his first match in the week in which he`ll get back to No.1.

My tip is Nadal to win with a 1,5 set handicap, I don`t think odds on this bet should be above 1.40 – 1.45. I`m not recommending more than 7 units though, given that Cincy isn`t Rafa’s favorite hunting ground. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Richard Gasquet 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Nadal -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.58 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 4.06
Event date: 17 August