Nadal – Federer

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will meet for the fourth time in 2017, this time in the Shanghai final, with the Spaniard attempting to win his first match against Federer since 2014.

Nadal has been on a complete tear since the start of the US Open, winning 16 consecutive matches, many times in dominant fashion. This time of the year has historically been Nadal’s worst, but he is playing at a really high level right now, which is allowing him to dominate despite the fast surfaces. This week Nadal easily defeated Donaldson and Fognini before having two very difficult matches in the later stages of the tournament, against Dimitrov (6-4 6-7 6-3) and Cilic (7-5 7-6).

Federer returned to action in Shanghai having not played since the US Open, but the Swiss found his rhythm pretty quickly, and was untroubled in his road to the final. Federer defeated Schwartzman, Dolgopolov and Gasquet without losing a set before getting past Del Potro 3-6 6-3 6-3 in the semifinals. Despite losing a set against Delpo, Federer was always in control and never looked like he was going to lose. Del Potro had just one break point the entire match, while Federer had 10.

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Nadal leads the H2H 23-14 and it`s well documented that he has owned the matchup against Federer over the years. However, Federer leads 10-9 on hard courts, and he has won the previous 4 meetings – including three this year, in which he seemed to turn the tables in the matchup. His improved backhand denied Nadal the matchup advantage he used to have, but Roger needs to remain steady on that side if he doesn`t want the old times to return.

Another relevant H2H stat is that Federer leads 5-1 on indoor hard courts, which is very important since the roof has a good chance to be closed. Although it`s unclear if it will rain come game time, it will definitely rain a lot in Shanghai on Sunday. Even if rain won`t fall at the beginning of the match, the organizers might decide to close the roof as a prevention measure, because chances are there will be precipitations at one point during the game.

Indoor hard has been the one surface where Federer dominated Nadal over the years, his only loss coming back in 2013 when Nadal was playing his best hard court tennis ever, while Federer was having his worst year ever.

Listen, Nadal is definitely the man to beat right now in the ATP, and he is without a doubt playing some excellent tennis. However, the “unbeatable” aura he has right now might be a bit of an exaggeration. In his 16 match winning streak, Rafa defeated just two Top 15 players (Dimitrov twice, Cilic) and had big problems in all three of those matches.

In his previous two outings here in Shanghai Rafa was in real danger each time, facing break points against Dimitrov in the deciding set in the quarterfinals, and set points against Cilic in the semifinals. Nadal raised his game in the key moments and pulled through, as champions often do, but he had a bit of luck on his side as well.

Federer on the other hand was never in danger. The Swiss did not necessarily play his absolute best tennis and he had an easier draw than Rafa, but he did play very well, doing what he needed to do and raising his game when the situation asked for it – like after losing the first set against Del Potro in the semifinals.

In normal circumstances, I would think Nadal has the first chance here, although odds on him might still be a bit low. But with the possibility (probability?) of the roof being closed, value is on Federer.

With Roger playing well and Rafa showing vulnerabilities in his last two matches (in the sense that he is note playing perfect tennis), it`s unreasonable to see Nadal as a favorite on a fast hard court – which could be transformed in a fast indoor hard court. Of course, Federer’s backhand needs to work well in order for him to win, but the fast conditions should help Fed stay steady on that side.

Look for a close match, but I believe Federer is the man to back here, mainly because of the odds. You would have Rafa maybe as a small favorite in outdoor conditions, and Federer as a favorite if it will be played indoor – so I think a bet on Roger makes sense.

My tip is Federer to win, with a stake of 7-8 units. Hopefully we`ll get a bit lucky with the weather and see a closed roof, which would increase Fed’s chances. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Roger Federer 6-4 3-6 4-6.

Pick: Federer
Odds: 2.32 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 10.56
Event date: 15 October