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Nadal – Federer

Federer Nadal 2019 Wimbledon betting preview

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will meet on Friday in an epic “Fedal” quarterfinal clash at Wimbledon, the first meeting on grass between the two since the epic 2008 final.

Rafa has been really solid over the past 10 days at Wimbledon, which was kind of surprising considering his history of being upset in the early rounds at this tournament. Rafa translated his clay court form onto grass and made light worth of his opponents so far. His only problems came in a 4 set win in the second round against Kyrgios. Aside from that match, Rafa cruised against Sugita, Tsonga, Sousa and Querrey – going above 6-3 in a set only once.

Federer chose to play on clay this year before the grass court season, he did well on the red dirt, and it seems like that decision did not impact his form on grass. Roger started the season on the green with his 10th title at Halle, and was excellent so far in Wimbledon, defeating Harris, Clarke, Pouille, Berrettini and Nishikori. Federer lost a total of two sets in this tournament, against Harris in the first round, and against Nishikori in the quarters. Both times it was the first set, and he never looked like losing in either of those matches.

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Rafael Nadal leads the H2H 24-16, and it is well known that he had a massive matchup advantage over Federer during the course of their careers.

However, the H2H history might work in favor of Federer here. First of all, he leads 2-1 on grass and this is his best surface, and Nadal`s worst.

More importantly, in the past few years Roger seemed to have finally figured out Rafa, winning 5 consecutive matches until Nadal finally ended the run one month ago in the Roland Garros semifinals. But even that 6-3 6-4 6-2 Rafa win on clay at RG suggested Federer has figured out Nadal. The match was much closer than the score suggested, and that was on the red dirt, with Nadal in absolute top form and Federer having not played on clay in three seasons.

Both players have been solid in this tournament, but you have to feel Federer was better, even if he lost two sets, while Nadal only lost one. Federer had a more challenging draw and was never in doubt to win in any of his matches, including against Nishikori in the quarters. Meanwhile, Nadal had a slightly easier draw and was in real trouble against Kyrgios in the second round.

This is a huge match, a legacy defining encounter after that colossal 2008 final. Roger finally has the chance to avenge that hurtful loss. If Federer loses, his status as best player ever is in massive danger. If he wins, he secures that status. No matter what happens in the final.

Nadal is coming after an emotionally exhausting Roland Garros win. He played very well here at SW19, but not great. He was not challenged, and that will work against him when he faces an opponent like Federer.

The main point here is that Federer has finally figured out Nadal in the last few years, as recent history suggests. Roger won the last 5 meetings outside of clay, including a 5 set victory in the 2017 Australian Open Final. He is past the Rafa complex, and it`s hard to see him losing on grass against a Nadal who is solid, but not great.

Look for Roger`s backhand to put pressure on Nadal, as it happened in the last 5 meetings outside clay, and from then on, Nadal will have no answer. Grass will accentuate this matchup advantage in favor of Federer.

With Federer having deciphered the Rafa question, and with the surface being grass, there`s no way you can look past Roger here. Even if the grass is slower this year, it`s still grass, and it`s still Federer`s back yard.

My tip will be Federer to win with 10/10 stakes. No matter how you spin it, Federer has the first chance here, so current odds are pure gold.. There`s no way Rafa should be considered as the favorite. Look for Federer to avenge that hurtful 2008 loss in 3 or 4 sets. Prediction: Rafael Nadal – Roger Federer 6-7 7-6 3-6 4-6.

Pick: Federer
Odds: 2.26 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 12.60
Event date: 12 July

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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2 Responses

  1. If the grass were like day 1 i will said federer had the first chance.but now it s more ground.the way it looks now will dwfinetly favor nadal. I think this is an important factor.hope i am wrong and federer will win this

    • You`re not necessarily wrong, but it`s still grass. Better for Nadal on the baseline with all the dirt, but the ball will still bounce on grass.

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