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Red Bull Salzburg and Malmo FF will square off for a second consecutive year in the Champions League qualifying stage. Last season, Malmo won the tie thanks to a 3-0 home win, after initially losing 2-1 in Austria. Surely Salzburg will be keen to avenge that ugly defeat and they will feel they have a good chance of doing that.
Salzburg might not look as scary as in the past two season, as they lost some players (mainly Alan), but this is still a very solid side with an amazing offense, led by the fantastic Jonathan Soriano. At home they are very strong, both domestically and in European Competitions. Salzburg played just two competitive matches this season, a 7-0 win in the Cup and a surprising 2-1 defeat at Mattersbyurg over the weekend – but surely the side was thinking about the tie with Malmo.
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Malmo has been shockingly poor this season. Really strange for a team that played great last year, including in the Champions League group stages and made what seemed to be very inspired signings with the money they got from UCL. However, despite having a great squad and an all star offense for Swedish football (Rosenberg, Berget, Sana, Mehmeti), Malmo is just 5th in Allsvenskan after 17 rounds and played some very poor matches. Their dreadful form extended to European football, where Malmo barely edged Zalgiris in the previous Champions League round – 0-0 at home and 1-0 away. On the bright side, the visitors finally ended their winless run in Allsvenskan last weekend, beating Sundsvall 3-0, so that might give them some confidence – even if Sundsvall was not exactly dangerous opposition.
There really seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel for Malmo, at least not short term. Poor results are one thing, but the side is just not clicking and is unable to play cohesive football. Salzburg is such a strong side and at home they should be able to do the job. They did it last year, when Malmo was playing so much better and with the experience of losing that tie, I reckon Salzburg will come in strong, looking to get a grip on the tie from the first leg – knowing that a 1 goal win might not get the job done for the reverse leg.
My tip is Salzburg to win with a 1,25 goal asian handicap, reasonably high stakes on this bet. Really the only edge for Malmo seems to be that they have more matches under their belt, but Salzburg started the season as well, so it doesn`t look to be a sufficient advantage for the visitors. Prediction: Red Bull Salzburg – Malmo 3-1.
Pick: Salzburg (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.93 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.44
Event date: 28 July
