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Opelka – Bublik

Opelka Bublik Atlanta betting preview

Local favorite Reilly Opelka will take on recent Newport finalist Alexander Bublik in the first round at the ATP 250 event in Atlanta.

The big serving Opelka had an excellent first part of the season on hard courts, including winning his first ever ATP title in New York back in February. As expected, he wasn`t that good when the clay court season came, although he did get a few quality wins. The American was riding a 4 match losing streak before Wimbledon, but got his form back at SW 19, where he defeated Wawrinka in the second round before losing to Milos Raonic in the third. This will be his first tournament since Wimbledon.

The 21 year old Bublik is fresh of the best tournament of his career, playing the final in Newport just a couple of days ago. He defeated Bolt, Tricki, Sandgren and Granollers (all 2-1) before losing 6-7 3-6 in the last act against John Isner. He will not try to replicate that form (and his very good early season form on hard courts) here in Atlanta, but it will be difficult for him with just one or two days of rest – depending if the match will be scheduled Tuesday or Wednesday.

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This will be the first H2H meeting between the two players. Both love to play on hard courts, although the huge serving Opelka surprisingly has a better winning percentage on clay. Still, the surface will suit both players just fine.

It is yet unclear if the match will be played Tuesday on Wednesday, but it shouldn`t make much of a difference. Sure, Bublik could use an extra day of rest, but he`s still in deep waters coming into this match.

Bublik played a lot of tennis last week, with 4 of his 5 matches requiring three sets, and there`s also the mental fatigue of just playing (and losing) his first ATP final.

But more than that, Bublik will have to translate his game on hard courts with just 1 or 2 practices on the surface after three months of clay and grass court tennis – and those practices being squeezed after an 1500km flight, with tired legs. That will be incredibly difficult to do against a Reilly Opelka who had more time to train on hard courts after Wimbledon – and also to train unbothered in Atlanta since he got here.

Opelka always does well in these US tournaments, he showed very good form in his last event at Wimbledon, and should take advantage of Bublik’s fatigue and lack of hard court training here.

It`s also worth noting that despite Bublik’s final run in Newport, he`s not in some kind of fantastic form coming into this match – he went through a very weak draw, the highest ranked player he met until the final was No.70 in the World (Sandgren), and he had to fight hard in all his matches.

As always in these situations there`s a chance Bublik might choose to withdraw, but at his young age I reckon he`ll give it a shot and play. My tip will be Opelka to win and I trust my analysis enough to go with reasonably high stakes of 9/10 units. Odds are currently dropping on the American. Prediction: Reilly Opelka – Alexander Bublik 7-6 6-2.

Pick: Opelka
Odds: 1.49 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.41
Event date: 23 July

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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