Opelka – Kovalik

Reilly Opelka Jozef Kovalik prediction

Roland Garros started few days ago with the qualification rounds. This is usually the best time to take some bets as most of the players are barely known by the wide public and some crazy prices can be found.

For 2nd round qualification I will go with a “banker” rather than a bet with a big value on a dog. This bet I am gonna take is a 1.50 shot in my opinion, as the real chances of this line to end up over are around 66.67% (in my opinion), while 1xBet is pricing it at 1.71 (58.48% implied chance), and Pinnacle at 1.65 (60.8% implied chance).

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Facts: Opelka is a young gun that has a huge serve, standing at 2.11m tall. This year he played 31 matches and won 20 of them, winning a clay court Challenger in Bordeaux. He played this year 1st round against Griekspoor and ended up with 21 games, won 7-5 6-3, close to the over again. Last year he played 3 qualies matches in RG and all of them ended in 3 sets (over in all three) and played a tie-break in all of them.

Kovalik, on the other hand, is a 1.83m guy, with a decent serve and an aggressive baseline play. He played a lot of long matches this season on clay, playing a TB in 10 of his 20 clay-court matches. And that is against worse servers than Opelka.

These two have never played before, but Kovalik’s record against over 6’4 tall players is promising … 6 overs and 3 unders (one of them only 1 game short, but with a TB played).

The surface is slow and the conditions are heavy and humid. Balls will fly harder through the air and you need a lot of power to close the points … the power which both players possess and that’s why the surface isn’t that big of a deal in my opinion.

Bottom line, this will be a hard-fought match with lots of service holds, so I will bet on over 22.5 games played. I am almost sure there will be a tie-break played in this clash and that assures somehow that the bet will come close to be a win. Hopefully we will not be unlucky to lose the bet from 1 break of serve 7-6 6-3 or something like that, that would be really ugly.

Pick: over 22.5 games
Odds: 1.71 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 7.10
Event date: 24 May

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2 comments

  1. From now in I will blindly bet on your tennis tips. You are killing it . 👊🏽

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