Olivo – Vesely

A rather unexpected tip for the first round in Indian Wells. I have found, what is in my opinion, one of the best value bets there is in the beginning of this Masters tournament. Olivo, no. 88, will take on lefty Czech player Jiri Vesely, no. 56. The match is expected to be played on Friday.

The two have met once before in their careers, and that was back in 2016 in Australian Open 1st round. Olivo won in 5 sets, recovering from a 2-1 set deficit (7-6 2-6 1-6 6-4 6-4).

This is Olivo`s second appearance at this Masters (lost in 2016 in 1st round to Mahut, after winning 2 Qualies rounds). Olivo is a clay-courter that loves to hit hard and deep through the opponents (not the usual clay-courter). His record for 2017 isn`t good at all with 5 wins and 7 losses (to Youzhny, Falla, Chung on hard courts). Olivo has a good record against left-handers, in the past 52 weeks he is 4W-4L, while in his career he is 26W-19L (on hard courts he is 4W-4L in his career).

Vesely would be usually the pick here, but his year is absolutely dreadful so far, having 4 wins and 6 losses. He managed to lose to Baghdatis in straight, to Monfils in straight, to Stakhovsky in straight and to Granollers in straight this year, winning only against Yuksel, Zeballos, Staham and Groth. All played matches in 2017 were played on hard courts (indoor x1 and outdoor x9). Jiri`s record in Indian Wells isn`t impressive neither, losing in 1st round in the past 2 years. He lost to Baghdatis in 2015: 6-3 1-1 ret., and to De Bakker in 2016: 6-4 4-6 6-2.

The court in Indian Wells is known to be a medium-slow court and taking that into consideration, I think that the surface speed evens the balance in favor of Olivo.

Both players are in bad shape, both players haven`t got any remarkable results here in the past, Olivo has a good record against lefties and the surface levels the balance a little (medium-slow, as stated before).

I really think this match should be considered a 50-50 clash and I am eager to bet on Renzo Olivo here, at odds 3.02 offered at Pinnacle.

Pick: Olivo
Odds: 3.02 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 16.16
Event date: 10 March