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Bautista Agut – Isner

Bautista Agut Isner betting preview

Roberto Bautista Agut will meet home favorite and reigning champion John Isner in the quarterfinals at the ATP Masters event in Miami.

Bautista Agut is on the back of a massive win against Djokovic in the previous round, coming back from 0-1 down to defeat the World No.1 1-6 7-5 6-3. Earlier in the tournament the Spaniard claimed straight sets wins against Tipsarevic and Fognini, so he is definitely in good form this week. He`s playing at a high level, similar to how he played at the beginning of the year, when he won Doha and reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open.

Isner had the best week of his career last season on these Miami courts, lifting his only Masters 1000 trophy despite having pre-tournament odds of 100 to do so. This year Big John has been rather average for his standards, losing some matches he should have won and failing to claim a notable victory. This week in Miami he got past Sonego, Ramos and Edmund without losing a set, so that is good news for him. On the other hand, the opposition wasn`t really top class (although Edmund was playing well), and all sets went to overtime (five times 7-6 and one time 7-5).

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Isner leads the H2H 2-1 (all meetings on hard courts), but Bautista-Agut won the most recent meeting back in 2016. Also, all matches were tight and needed a deciding set, so you can`t really talk about a matchup advantage for either player. It will be a clash of styles between Bautista`s baseline defense and consistency against Isner`s big serve and attacking approach.

Bautista has been pretty impressive this week, particularly in that spectacular comeback win against Djokovic. It is true that Djokovic was not at his best, and also missed a lot of chances to take control and run away with the match. But it`s not like Nole was that poor, he was at an Ok level even for his high standards. Bautista Agut deserves credit for playing very well and showing great mental strength to come out with a win from that one.

That win will surely give Bautista Agut a ton of confidence, and he will know he now has a big chance in this tournament. This year he has been devastating when he was at his best, beating guys like Djokovic (twice), Cilic, Berdych Murray, Khachanov or Wawrinka.

Isner on the other hand had his best win of the year against Querrey in Acapulco, or maybe against Edmund this week. He has not won a match as the underdog all year.

Of course, Big John is definitely feeling well here in Miami and he is pumped up to defend his title. He played well this week, but his level wasn`t quite top class. Things could have gone differently with a bit of bad luck considering 5 of his 6 sets were decided in the tiebreak, and the other was 7-5.

I reckon odds on Bautista should be lower, and I feel part of the reason Isner is rated so highly is his win here last year – something which won`t have much of an impact. Bautista has played better tennis this season (much better, actually), and has played better this week. He looks like a strong favorite here, so even though it probably won`t be a walk in the park, I`m going to back the Spaniard to win with 9 units. Prediction: Roberto Bautista Agut – John Isner 6-7 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Bautista Agut
Odds: 1.96 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.64
Event date: 27 March

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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