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Bautista-Agut – Berdych

Bautista Agut Berdych Doha prediction

Roberto Bautista-Agut and Tomas Berdych will square off on Saturday in the ATP Doha final.

Roberto Bautista-Agut is having a terrific start to the season, as he played some very high quality tennis this week in Doha. The Spaniard was really at his best level throughout the whole tournament. Roberto started off with two blowout wins against Berrettini and Garcia Lopez (losing only 10 total games), went on to defeat Stan Wawrinka 6-4 6-4, and got a huge win over Djokovic in a three setter in the semifinals.

Berdych had a dreadful 2018, riddled with bad play in the first part of the year and then with an injury which kept him inactive since June until this week. Tomas dropped out of the Top 70 in the rankings, and there were questionmarks about his ability to bounce back at a top level, as he is now 33 years old. Nevertheless, Berdych played well, this week, defeating Kohlschreiber, Verdasco, Herbert and Cecchinato – losing just one set, against Verdasco.

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Berdych leads the H2H 4-2 (2-2 on hard courts). Given the tight H2H score and the fact that the two players haven`t met since early 2016, this stat is pretty irrelevant.

There`s little doubt that Bautista-Agut has played the better tennis this week between the two. Bautista was exceptional all week, didn`t have a single letdown, and that is despite having a very difficult draw with the likes of Wawrinka or Djokovic. While Djokovic wasn`t at his absolute best in the semifinals, it was still a remarkable victory for Bautista, who played at a really high level.

Meanwhile, Berdych played well himself, but he was far from flawless, and showed plenty of weaknesses. He could have lost against Verdasco and also had close matches against Kohlschreiber and Cecchinato. His only easy win was against Herbert.

It`s hard to see Bautista-Agut losing this after he played so well all week against top level of opposition. A hangover after the Djokovic wins seems unlikely, given the fact that the Spaniard is a top, experienced player, and this is a final – such ‘hangovers’ after a big win happen to lesser players in earlier rounds.

Look for the Spaniard to frustrate Berdych with his consistent baseline defense, forcing the Czech player to hit another shot. Berdych has not been mistake-free this week, so Bautista should be able to force a fair number of unforced errors from him.

My tip will be Bautista-Agut to win. Odds are dropping on the Spaniard, which is not surprising according to my analysis. To be honest, I think any price above 1.50 is worth taking here. Prediction: Roberto Bautista-Agut – Tomas Berdych 6-4 6-7 6-2.

Pick: Bautista-Agut
Odds: 1.67 @ Bwin
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 5.36
Event date: 5 January

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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