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Federer – Evans

Federer Evans US Open betting preview

Roger Federer will take on Daniel Evens in Day 5 at the US Open, on Friday, in the third round.

Federer has not quite played his best in his first two matches, losing a set against both Nagal and Dzumhur, neither of them being very dangerous opponents. These results are coming after a second round exit against Rublev in Cincinatti, so Roger has not yet hit his stride following Wimbledon. Nevertheless, after losing the opening set against Nagal and Dzumhur, Federer won the next three very comfortably each time, which suggests it all had more to do with his focus and intensity as opposed to his actual game form.

Evans has entered the US Open in average form, recording a 5-5 win-loss record on the recent hard court tournaments in the US Open series – not really a good record considering that he was a favorite in seven of those matches. The Brit played very well so far at Flushing Meadows though, claiming four set wins against Mannarino and Pouille, who are not exactly the easiest opponents to compete against.

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Federer leads the H2H 3-0 (2-0 on hard courts) and has not dropped a set to Evans out of eight played. However, Evans gave Federer a decent fight in their last meetings, this year at the Australian Open. Federer won 7-6 7-6 6-3 in the second round, by far his most difficult encounter against today`s opponent.

Roger’s unimpressive performance in the first two rounds has surely influenced the bookies here. The Swiss is priced at 1.15 to win and as high as 1.95 to win in straight sets. Surely a Federer 3:0 victory would have had odds no higher than 1.70 or so if he looked a bit sharper against Nagal and Dzumhur.

However, we know very well that Federer nevery quite pushes himself too hard in the first one or two matches, and it was pretty obvious that is what happened so far this week. It`s not uncommon for him to lose sets early in the tournament, only to step it up starting with the second or third round. This happened in the previous Grand Slam as well, at Wimbledon, when he lost a set against Harris in the first round, and then we all saw what kind of tennis he played for the rest of the tournament.

Evans is playing well but you can`t really say that he`s in the form of his life or anything of that nature. He also never seemed to have the game to trouble Federer, which is supported by the H2H results. He could have won his first set against Roger at the Australian Open earlier this year, but he didn`t, and that was a second round match – so a round earlier, possibly that had something to do with Federer playing more casually.

Chances are Federer will step on the gas in this match, surely he will feel he wasted enough time on the court in the first two rounds and will want a quicker victory. He knows that at his age these things matter.

Even if the US Open has not been Fed’s favorite Slam recently, and will potentially not be this year either (as the surface is still slow), a routine performance should be enough to earn him a straight sets win over Evans. And he should put in that kind of performance after getting some rhythm in his first two matches.

My tip will be Federer to cover the -2,5 set handicap, look for him to be a bit sharper and play a bit better today. Prediction: Roger Federer – Daniel Evans 6-4 6-4 6-4.

Pick: Federer -2,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.97 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 6.79
Event date: 30 August

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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