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Federer – Millman



Federer Millman Halle prediction

Roger Federer will open up his 2019 grass court campaign on Tuesday against John Millman in the ATP Halle first round.

Federer is coming after a semifinal showing at Roland Garros, with the Swiss playing very well on clay after a 2 year layoff on that surface. Now Roger is back on his beloved grass at his beloved tournament in Halle, where he will be looking for his 10th title (the most in any tournament for him). Last year Roger lost to Coric in the finals here, so he will be pumped up to regain his crown and get some confidence before Wimbledon.

Millman didn`t have a very good year so far, and it`s fair to say his results in 2019 have been below average for his expectations. As a result, he dropped 20 places in the rankings to the 57th spot since the start of the year. Millman hasn`t won back to back matches on the ATP level since late February, and lost 4-6 6-7 to Dustin Brown in his first match on grass, last week in Stuttgart.

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The H2H is tied at 1-1 (no meetings on grass), with Millman winning the previous clash last year at the US Open. Both players like grass, although Federer obviously is arguably the best player ever on this surface, and will always have an edge.

Looking at Millman`s recent form you can not expect him to seriously challenge Federer for the win, but history suggests he should be able to stay close.

Federer often starts slower in tournaments, rarely pushing for big wins. Over the years this has been particularly true for his opening match of the season on grass.

Incredibly, Federer has lost at least a set in his first match on grass for each of the past 5 seasons! The level of opposition wasn`t that great either (2018 M Zverev, 2017 Haas – lost, 2016 Fritz, 2015 Kohlschreiber, 2014 Sousa). He failed to cover the 4.5 game handicap, today`s line, in the last 4 years.

Millman might not be in good form, but surely he will be extra motivated and he will raise his level against Federer, and his solid serve will also help him get some free points. He also should have a good level of confidence considering that both of his matches with Federer were very close, and he actually defeated him less than a year ago in a big match in the US Open fourth round.

Federer could also be even more keen to pace himself given that he`s coming after playing on clay and after a long Roland Garros, something he hasn`t been used to doing in the last 3 years. Surely you would expect him to keep this in mind at his age.

My tip will be Millman to cover the 4.5 game handicap. Something like 7-6 6-4 for Federer seems like a reasonable result to expect, and it would pretty much be in line with his results over the years in his first grass court match in a season. The bet could win even with Federer claiming one break per set if we get lucky and Millman serves first. Odds on this bet are currently dropping. Prediction: Roger Federer – John Millman 7-6 6-4.

Pick: Millman +4,5
Odds: 1.91 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6.37 7.28
Event date: 18 June

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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