Federer – Nishikori

Federer Nishikori Shanghai prediction

Roger Federer and Kei Nishikori will square off on Friday in the ATP Shanghai quarterfinals.

Federer returned to action this week for the first time since his 4th round exit at the US Open, not taking into account the Laver Cup exhibition from a few weeks ago. The Swiss Maestro wasn`t particularly impressive in his two matches here, needing three sets to defeat both Medvedev and Bautista-Agut. Nevertheless, Federer has played ok and will hope to improve his level now in the later stages of the tournament.

Nishikori has been pretty sharp in his last three tournaments, posting a semifinal at the US Open, a quarterfinal at Metz and a final at Tokyo last week. Here in Shanghai he defeated Wu (three sets, but won the last two clearly) and Querrey in a tight two setter. The Japanese ace will enter this clash in good form and will feel he has a great shot at an upset if Federer does not raise his level.

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Federer leads the H2H 5-2 (4-1 on hard courts) and won the last four meetings against Nishikori. Still, only one took place in the last three years and that was at the 2017 Australian Open when Federer won in 5 sets.

While Federer wasn`t quite at his best in his previous two matches, there`s every reason to expect a much better showing from him in this clash. He often starts slow at big tournaments only to finish strong, and that is even more likely to happen in this event.

Shanghai has been one of Federer’s favorite tournaments over the years. The surface and conditions suit his game perfectly and there`s no surprise that from 6 appearances he has 3 finals, 2 of which he won – including last year.

As for Nishikori, he is definitely playing well, but his recent run of good results is a bit misleading. Yes, Key is 13-3 since the start of the US Open, but he didn`t have many big wins. In fact he only had one, in the US Open quarters against Cilic. The rest of his wins came with Nishikori as a heavy favorite (each time as a below 1.50 odds favorite).

This week Kei was far from perfect and showed some weaknesses. He had some problems in both matches, losing set to Wu and saving set point against Querrey. He might be playing well, but he doesn`t seem sharp enough to defeat Federer in one of Roger’s favorite tournaments – and with the H2H suggesting a rather tricky matchup for Nishikori.

Federer will probably have a bit less support from the stands today than he usually does, given that he faces the best Asian player in Shanghai, but that shouldn`t count too much. My tip will be Federer to win. Prediction: Roger Federer – Kei Nishikori 7-6 6-4.

Pick: Federer
Odds: 1.47 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 3.76
Event date: 12 October

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

One comment

  1. After reading your preview, i didnt feel that federer is more than deserve a heavy favorite. Are there enough value to go with high stake with this low odds?

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