Federer – Zverev

Roger Federer Mischa Zverev Halle betting preview

Roger Federer and Mischa Zverev will square off in a meeting between two grass court specialists, set to be played in the third round at the ATP 500 event in Halle.

Halle has been Federer’s back yard over the years, as he won the tournament no less than 8 times – more than any other event on his resume. As such, it was no surprise that Roger got off to a strong start here this year with a 6-3 6-1 win over Sugita, after his shock defeat to Haas in his first match on grass last week in Stuttgart. Federer of course had a brilliant year before skipping the clay court season and now, with two matches under his belt on grass, he seems focused and ready to do big damage on the surface he loves.

Mischa Zverev is going trough the best times of his professional career, breaking the Top 30 and going deep in a number of events, claiming some big scalps as well. The German is an excellent grass court player and is on the back of a semifinal showing at Stuttgart (lost to Lopez). Here in Halle, Zverev made light work of Lack in the first round with a 6-4 6-4 win.

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Federer leads the H2H 3-0 (1-0 on grass) and this is Zverev’s biggest problem coming into this match. Federer simply loves to play against serve & volley players like Zverev, picking them apart. Zverev has not won a set against Federer in the three H2H meetings, and the one time they met on grass, Federer won 6-0 6-0 (Halle, 2013)! Federer also won 6-1 7-5 6-2 earlier this year at the Australian Open, with Zverev coming off a win against Andy Murray.

Of course, Zverev is not the same player that was double bageled by Federer 4 years ago at this same venue, and he`s in very good form – playing solid and reliable tennis. However, chances are that won`t be nearly enough considering the horrible matchup he has against Federer. His style just doesn`t work against the Swiss Maestro, who has routinely destroyed big servers and / or serve & volleyers over the course of his career.

There`s also the fact that Federer is clearly motivated to do well here. He loves the tournament and it`s an ATP 500 event, so here are the most points to be won on grass outside of Wimbledon. What`s more, Federer skipped the entire clay court season to focus on grass, and after his early exit last week at Stuttgart, there is no more room for upsets. As such, I expect Federer to come out strong and with a purpose, just like in the first round.

Roger should put on a good display here without too many mishits or 5 meter misses, and he needs nothing more than that to easily take care of Zverev given the H2H and the matchup. He should be able to pick Zverev’s game apart little by little, eventually getting a break in each set.

My tip is Federer to cover the 1,5 set handicap. To be honest I am not very excited with the odds here, I was hoping for something from 1.60 upwards – so I am just a little bit reluctant in taking this bet with high stakes, as the bookies did their job well.

However, I do have solid confidence that the pick will be a winner, so that`s why I`m taking this with 9 units. Odds over 1.50 are satisfying, but I`m not sure I would take anything below that – maybe with lower stakes. Prediction: Roger Federer – Mischa Zverev 6-4 7-5.

Pick: Federer -1,5 set handicap
Odds: 1.59 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 5.31
Event date: 22 June

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

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