Federer – Berdych

Roger Federer Tomas Berdych Miami prediction

Roger Federer will look to build on his excellent Head 2 Head record against Tomas Berdych, when the two players meet in the ATP Miami quarterfinals.

Federer has an amazing record of 16 wins and 1 loss this season, playing at an incredibly high level and currently dominating the tour. After winning in Indian Wells two weeks ago, there were questionmarks over Roger’s fitness coming into Miami, but he looked just fine in his three matches so far against Tiafoe, Del Potro and Bautista Agut (whom Roger beat 7-6 7-6 in the previous round). It wasn`t the best match he played lately, but he still did enough to win it in straight sets against a very inspired and solid Bautista Agut.

Berdych didn`t have a great year so far, often looking unable to challenge the top guys and seemingly being in the twilight of his career. Two weeks ago in Miami he played an absolute shocker to lose against Nishioka in the 3nd round, despite leading 6-1 5-2 and 30-15. That being said, Berdych has been more consistent here in Miami. He did not lose a set so far, which is pretty impressive even if he did not face top opposition (Mannarino, Muller and Rublev).

Bet on Federer vs. Berdych and claim your 100% (100 Eur) bonus at Ohmbet now!

Federer leads the H2H against Berdych 17-6 (11-5 on hard) and won the last 6 meetings. The last 5 were all in straight sets and out of those 12 sets, 11 finished 6-4 or less for Fed. The previous match between Roger and Tomas was this year at the Australian Open and Federer won 6-2 6-4 6-4. It`s well known that Federer mathces up very well against Berdych and lately he has been even more dominant than usual over the Czech.

Berdych can usually challenge Federer only when he`s in absolute top form, while Roger is not. This is definitely not the case right now. In fact, it`s quite the opposite.

Credit to Berdych for reaching the quarters, but he is simply not playing that great right now. He`s doing very well (has not been broken yet in Miami), but he had a very easy draw and he`s not exactly at the top of his game. He`s not at that error – free level where he can win Masters events or reach Grand Slam semifinals.

With Federer playing so well and with Berdych not at his absolute best level, it`s hard to see how Tomas could win a set here given how badly he matches up against Roger and how powerless he was in the last H2H meetings.

Berdych would have to be better than Federer for at least 30 minutes or so and that just doesn`t look likely to happen – especially when you think that Berdych hasn’t beaten a Top 10 player in almost a year and just does not seem to have what it takes to challenge the top guys anymore (2-13 record in last 15 matches vs. Top 10 opposition and only ONE set won in the 13 losses).

To sum up the stats, Berdych lost 12 consecutive sets against Federer, 11 of them with 6-4 or less. He has not beaten a Top 10 opponent in 10 months. He lost 13 of his last 15 matches against Top 10 opponents, only beating Gasquet and Ferrer, barely Top 10 at the time. And in those last 13 losses against Top 10 players, he won a single set! The stats definitely do not indicate much of a chance for him to snatch a set from Federer here.

I expect Federer to put pressure on Berdych with aggressive shots, as he usually does, not giving Tomas the time he needs to get set on his own groundstrokes – and eventually force enough errors from the Czech to obtain a one break per set advantage.

My tip is Roger Federer to win this match in straight sets. All of Federer’s last 9 wins came in straight sets and I don`t see any facts to suggest the run will stop against Berdych. I think the odds should not be higher than 1.60 – 1.65 at the most here, so I will invest a high 9 unit stake on the bet. Prediction: Roger Federer – Tomas Berdych 6-3 6-4.

Pick: Federer 2:0
Odds: 1.74 @ Unibet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 6.66
Event date: 30 March

About Rostick

Born in '88. Running betting tips websites since 2007. Launched Betdistrict in 2013. Worked as a bookie for a year to spy on the other side. Rugby Union and NBA expert. Editor info & statistics.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *