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Romania will host Montenegro on Friday in the first round of the League of Nations, Division C. The New League of Nations has a complicated format which is not worth explaining in detail, but shortly put, the winner of the group (or potentially even the second place) will have a chance to qualify to Euro 2020 depending of the results in the classic qualifications. Romania and Montenegro are in the same group with Serbia and Lithuania.
Romania has been a disaster lately both at club and International level. The club teams are in total disarray, a fact proven by the fact that all Romanian teams have already been eliminated from Champions League and Europa League. As for the National team, they finished 4th in the last qualification campaign (in a group with Poland, Denmark, Montenegro, Armenia, Kazakhstan). The team is devoid of individual talent and all hopes are put in new manager Cosmin Contra (appointed towards the end of the last qualifying campaign), but he is unproven and not very highly rated.
Montenegro finished the qualifying campaign for the 2018 World Cup on the third place, ahead of Romania. Today`s visitors actually took 4 points off Romania in that group. However, results for Montenegro have been very poor lately, with them recording 3 losses and 3 draws in the last 6 matches (including friendlies), dating back since October 2017.
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Both teams have squad problems ahead of this match. Romania will miss two of their best players, Marin (Standard Liege) and Andone (Brighton), their only two players (except the keeper) who play regularly in decent leagues abroad. Montenegro will miss its main man Jovetic (Monaco), along with other important players like Jankovic, Vesovic or Marusic.
Romania: Tatarusanu – Benzar, Chiriches, Sapunaru, Banciu – Pintilie, Stanciu – Chipciu, Budescu, Mitrita – Keseru
Montenegro: Petkovic – Stojkovic, Savic, Simic, Kopitovic – Kosovic, Vukcevic, Scekic, Jovovic – Mugosa, Beciraj
We are talking about two poor teams here, which are also offensively challenged.
Romania does have a decent goalscoring record in 2018 (8 goals scored in 4 games), but that was in friendly games against teams which were either weak, or disinterested and playing with a second string lineup. The hosts really don`t have any real individual talents up front.
As for Montenegro, they failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
What`s more, both teams will miss their main strikers, Andone for Romania and Jovetic for Montenegro.
In the World Cup 2018 qualifying campaign the two results between Romania and Montenegro were 1-1 and 0-1.
Given the above facts, and taking into account that this is the first match in the competition, and the teams are likely to start tentatively, testing the waters, an ugly and tight game could well be on the cards. The fact that the two teams know eachother after the recent WC 2018 qualifying campaign could also facilitate a low scoring game. My tip here will be under 2,5 goals to be scored. Prediction: Romania – Montenegro 1-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.60 @ 1xBet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 4.20
Event date: 7 September
Things are pretty obvious here. Do you think there are still value in the odds?
I have to admit I was hoping for slightly better odds. I think odds around 1.55 are fair, so pretty much it`s just my personal conviction that it will go under. That`s why I kept the stakes relatively reasonable.