Romania – Spain

Romania will host Spain in the second round of the Rugby European Championship, former Nations Cup, also known as “Six Nations B”. Both teams achieved interesting results in the first round.

After an excellent 2016, Romania suffered a shock defeat last week in the first round of the Rugby Europe Championship. Despite being 1.01 favorites and leading twice by 18 points, the Romanians somehow managed to lose 38-41 in Germany, jeopardizing their REC campaign and their qualification for the 2019 World Cup. It was a step back for the Oaks, as they were really looking able to challenge Georgia for the title this season, but now a more realistic focus would be finishing second and qualifying for the World Cup. Either way, a win against Spain is mandatory for the World’s 16th ranked side.

Spain finished 4th last season in the Rugby Europe Championship behind Georgia, Romania and Russia, but this season they started off with a brilliant 16-6 win over the Russians in Madrid. That win, coupled with Romania’s defeat in Germany, allows Spain to dream about World Cup qualification, so this will be a huge test for them in Bucharest. Spain is relying mostly on players based in France, who are either playing for weak clubs, or not playing at all.

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Team news: The two lineups will be similar to the ones that played last week in the first round. As usual in the Nations Cup, Romania misses 2-3 great players who were not released from their clubs, but they still have a few elite talents based in France, along with the good talent from the solid Romanian domestic league.

Weather: There will be positive temperatures in Bucharest and the pitch is expected to be in good conditions, even if it`s currently under snow. The snow will only be cleared before the game time in order to keep the field extra warm until then. Weather & pitch conditions should not have any impact on the game.

Romania beat Spain in 32 out of 34 H2H meetings over time. The Oaks won the last 4 games, including 21-18 last year in Spain – which was a much closer score than usual. At home, Romania has utterly shattered Spain in the last two decades, winning all of the last 10 matches by 21 or more points – including a 35-9 win in the last meeting in Romania, two years ago. Spain has slowly narrowed the gap, but these stats accurately depict the difference in quality between the two sides.

Romania’s defeat to Germany last week is definitely a black mark for the hosts and it`s hard to find excuses for such a result, but truly everything went wrong for them – from bad luck to horrible refereeing decisions. Besides those factors, it was clearly a game which Romania treated lightly, they tried to work on some schemes and adjust their tactics for future tougher matches, not playing their usual game. They thought they had it in the bag and were unfocused, which eventually lead to disaster in the closing stages – when it was too late to find concentration and revert to the normal level of play and tactics.

Fact is that the loss against Germany does not define this Romanian team. The Oaks are in a good spot right now, the team is pretty solid and results last year were great, as they lost a single game and utterly dominated sides like Canada, Namibia, Uruguay or the USA. At Arcul De Triumf stadium they are particularly strong, as showed back in the November tests with convincing wins over USA, Canada and Uruguay.

Romania will be desperate to get their campaign back on track and erase last week’s result and I expect a solid win over Spain. They should be able to do just that in their backyard at Arcul de Triumf Stadium against an inferior team. It`s reasonable to expect that Romania will show a totally different face this week compared to last week`s loss in Germany.

Look for much better focus and expect the Oaks to forget about experimenting and rely on their strengths, particularly the scrum and the mauls, where they should dominate Spain over the course of the 80 minutes. If Romania’s forward pack plays at its natural potential and puts Spain to shame, it should be easy work from there to get the ball out wide and milk penalties which will be converted by one of the best kickers among second tier teams, Vlaicu.

The 10,5 handicap line seems really low, Romania is beating second tier teams like Canada or USA around these margins at home. Against a third tier team like Spain, the line should be in the region of 15 points, especially with the added motivation after losing in Germany.

My tip is Romania to cover the 10,5 point handicap. Currently 1xBet and Marathonbet are the only bookies providing handicaps for the game, but others should soon follow. Keep in mind the match is played rather early though, at 10:45 GMT. Prediction: Romania – Spain 32 – 14.

Pick: Romania -10,5
Odds: 1.92 @ 1xBet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 9.20
Event date: 18 February