Russia – Azerbaijan

Qualifiers for Euro 2016 are set to begin but first there will be a couple of International friendlies for preparation and one of them sees Russia host Azerbaijan at Arena Khimki.

No wins for Russia in Brazil, they underperformed at the World Cup but enter these qualification with the same manager (Capello) and same squad, looks like the analysis made bu the Federation did not require changes. Russia plays on Monday vs. Liechtenstein in the first match of qualies so vs. Azerbaijan it will be good preparation. On the other hand it is a question if the mercurial players of Russia will be focused for meeting two minnows … especially with some players coming after big matches in Champions League or Europa League. But Russia is a very strong team at home, they rarely concede goals … and of course deserve to be big favorites for this game.

Azerbaijan played some international friendlies in the summer but not big games, most relevant match was vs. USA and they lost 2-0. Azeri football is improving … we can see this at club level but also at national team who posted decent results in last years against top teams and are not an easy side to break down. Azerbaijan actually met Russia in the World Cup qualifiers last year and it was 1-1 in Azerbaijan and 0-1 in Russia, two very close games.

Russia has most top players available but I don’t know if Capello will field the best team, but even if he does it will not be an easy game for the hosts. There is no motivation for them, morale is low after the World Cup and meet a very resilient team who can defend and put big problems to them even in key official matches in the last two years. If the Russians are not fully focused Azerbaijan is a team that can take advantage … for sure they will be very motivated to get a result against a top team and will be 100% concentrated in this match. I see a good defensive performance from Azerbaijan and a so-so performance for Russia, Russians do not excel in attack so it won’t be easy for them to get 2 goals. My tip will be Azerbaijan +1,75 asian handicap, we only lose half of profit if Russia wins by 2. Results in friendlies don’t matter too much so I think it is worth looking for the value in odds and this handicap has both value and very good chances to win according to my analysis. Prediction: Russia – Azerbaijan 1-0.

Pick: Azerbaijan (+1,75 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 1.90 @ Ladbrokes
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.2
Event date: 3 September