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Hosts Russia will hope to claim a deciding win against Egypt, as the two teams meet in a make or break match in Group A.
Russia opened their campaign with that exciting 5-0 win against Saudi Arabia. It was definitely more than most expected from Russia and the home side played well, but in all honesty Saudi Arabia was really poor, and the big scoreline was only shaped in the last few minutes. Nevertheless, it was a very good win for the Russians. They didn`t look so good coming into this World Cup, but will now have confidence and momentum.
Egypt suffered heartbreak in the first match, losing 0-1 against Uruguay in the dying moments of the game after a good defensive performance. Egypt looked solid against a very strong team despite not having Mo Salah. The Egyptians will expect to get their star player back for his match though, which would surely be a big boost for them.
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While it`s not yet 100% sure that he will play, Mo Salah is tipped to start the game, so Egypt should be at full strength here. Dzagoev is doubtful for Russia and chances are he will miss out.
Russia: Akinfeev – Fernandes, Kutepov, Ignashevich, Zhirkov – Zobnin, Gazinskiy – Samedov, Golovin, Cheryshev – Smolov
Egypt: El Shenawy – Fathy, Gabr, Hegazi, Shafy – Hamed, Elneny – Trezeguet, Said, Salah – Mohsen
Both teams looked good in the opening match, even though Egypt eventually lost. This will be an absolute key clash here, with the potential loser virtually out of the World Cup, while the potential winner will most likely end up qualifying for the next round.
Considering the importance of the match, expect zero risks to be taken by either side, and it could well end up being a cautious and rugged midfield battle with nobody committing too many players forward. At the end of the day a draw would probably be acceptable for each team (Russia would be in a great position, while Egypt at least would still have a chance), taking into account the disastrous implications of a potential loss.
Both teams have a mostly defensive DNA, and we saw both of them being very secure at the back in their opening matches. Egypt might have lost 0-1, but their defensive setup was very well organized against the likes of Cavani and Suarez. History also comes to confirm this statement, Egypt allowing just 4 goals in 6 games in their qualifying group, while Russia has been known over the last couple of years to have problems in offense (despite the 5 goals they scored against the poor Saudi Arabia), having to rely on not allowing too many goals.
Salah`s possible presence would be a boost for Egypt`s offense, but he can`t do it by himself, and it`s unclear if he will be at his best level coming back after his shoulder injury.
Such a big game in which losing is not an option, between two teams who are solid at the back, is unlikely to produce too many goalscoring chances, so betting on under 2,5 goals seems like a good idea. Odds are not very high, but they are fair, and are going down at the moment. Prediction: Russia – Egypt 0-0.
Pick: under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.53 @ Sbobet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.77
Event date: 19 June
I can’t understand why betting on a fair betting option (no value betting option) with a high stake is a good idea.
Well, when I say this I usually mean it through a bookie perspective. Did they offer what they think is a fair price, or did they try to skim a bit from the top of the odds of the more likely result?
As a bettor, adding my personal input, I think this ends with under 2.5 goals 7 times out of 10 – so for me there`s value.
But as a bookie you can`t price the under at 1.40 too easily, there are other factors which you have to take into account (plus my personal opinion is excluded), so from their perspective 1.50 is a fair price.
Hope that makes sense 🙂