The 18th seed and local favorite Sam Querrey will face the 32nd seed Milos Raonic in the Indian Wells quarter finals on Friday night.
Querrey is the only American left in the field, and surely the crowd will go bananas for him in this match, so that could be a factor.
These two players have met on four occasions in the past, and the H2H is just perfectly even at 2-2. Both players have won one grass and one indoor match so far. So the H2H is as even as it can get to be honest.
The main fact which will make me place a max stakes bet here is that Raonic isn’t that fit right now, and the past results show exactly what I mean. He struggled the whole year so far, losing in Brisbane in round 1 to De Minaur (2-0), in Australia in round 1 to Lacko (3-1), in Delray Beach in round 2 to Johnson (2-0) and here in Indian Wells he looked rather rusty against Auger and Sousa. He also lost set to a really bad Sousa.
Querrey on the other hand was fluctuating this year with 1st round losses in Auckland, Delray and Acapulco, with the Final in New York, and here defeating Zverev M., Bhambri (the Indian in huge form), and an in-form Lopez (2-0 without even getting to a Tie break).
The match should be even if both were 100% fit, and then the 1.85 – 1.95 on Querrey would be a really fair price. Considering Raonic is struggling after his injury, and Querrey being so good this week, I can only take one bet here … on Big Sam. 10 units for me on odds 1.95 at Betfair Sportsbook, and these odds are dropping fast.