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Querrey – Nadal

Querrey Nadal Wimbledon betting preview

Sam Querrey and Rafael Nadal will square off on Wednesday in the Wimbledon quarterfinals.

Big Sam is looking really good on grass this season, having reached the final at Eastbourne (lost to Fritz) and now reaching the Wimbledon QF’s to set up a blockbuster meeting with Nadal. It`s fair to say that Querrey had a rather accessible draw here in Wimby, facing Thiem, Rublev, Millman and Sandgren – not the most dangerous opponents considering that Thiem is not a grass court player. Still, Querrey did well to beat each of those guys, losing a total of only 2 sets.

Nadal seems to have translated his clay court form right onto grass, maybe with some help from the slower courts at Wimbledon this year. Rafa has been exquisite in the 4 matches he played against Sugita, Kyrgios, Tsonga and Sousa. He did face a tough challenge from Kyrgios, a match in which Rafa lost a set and could have even lost two. But in the other three matches Nadal left no opponent more than 7 games in total!

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Nadal leads the H2H 4-1 (1-0 in Grand Slams, no meetings on grass), but has had some (minor) problems against Querrey historically. Rafa has just one straight sets win against Big Sam, and that was on clay. Additionally, Querrey won the last meeting 2-0, in 2017 in Acapulco. Big Sam also fancies grass much more than Rafa, even if Nadal of course can play great on the green as well when he`s in top form, and the surface is slower this year, which helps him.

Obviously Rafa is the big favorite here, and it`s reasonable to believe he will win the match. However, this matchup against Querrey does have the potential to be tricky.

Nadal has been upset many times at Wimbledon before, as all tennis fans remember, and this happened even when he was looking in his best form. Just two years ago he lost to Muller in the fourth round despite looking unstoppable in the first three matches. Even this year it looked like an upset could happen early, maybe if Kyrgios was more professional.

Meanwhile, Querrey has a history of upsetting the biggest names here at SW19. We`re not even talking about guys like Tsonga or Anderson, but the best of the best. Querrey defeated Djokovic here in 2016 and Murray in 2017, en route to his semifinal run.

When you add the fact that Big Sam always performed well against Nadal, winning 5 sets in 5 meetings, and that Rafa already showed a bit of vulnerability against a big server (Kyrgios), you have to feel that Querrey has a real chance. History shows us that the conditions for an upset exist here, and that it`s possible.

Do I think Querrey is a favorite to win? Of course not. Do I think he will win? Not necessarily. Hell, I don`t even know if I really want him to win, given that a mouthwatering Nadal – Federer matchup is on the cards in the next round, and I`ve been waiting for that rematch since 2008. But I do strongly feel there is very good value on Querrey here, and I would be scared dead to take Nadal at odds 1.11 – 1.12 in this match.

My tip will be Querrey to win. I`ll rather take the best value with low stakes here as opposed of any handicaps, because if Nadal has a great day at the office, he could well win big. A stake of 1-2 units should be enough on this bet. Prediction: Sam Querrey – Rafael Nadal 7-6 3-6 1-6 7-6 8-6.

Pick: Querrey
Odds: 7.60 @ 1xBet
Stake: 2
Possible profit: 13.20
Event date: 10 July

About Rostick

Former bookie & water polo player. Rugby Union expert. - EDITOR INFO & STATS
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