Samoa – Wales

Samoa will host Wales on Friday morning (06:30 GMT) in an International rugby test match, set to be played at Apia Park.

Samoa is on the back of an absolute trashing at the hands of New Zealand, losing 78-0 to the All Blacks last week. The Samoans weren`t particularly horrible, as New Zealand was pumping on all cylinders, but still Samoa should have done better. The hosts seem to have regressed a bit in recent years and have now fallen to the 3rd place in the Pacific rankings, behind Fiji and Tonga.

Wales (with interim manager Robin Mcbryde at the helm) is coming after a 24-6 win against Tonga in Auckland. It was a close one for the most duration of the match and Wales wasn`t particularly impressive, but they eventually pulled away late and were never in real danger of losing that match. It was a good test for Wales, as they are missing most of their best players due to the British&Irish Lions tour which is currently going on.

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Team news & lineups:

Samoa will miss one of its best players, Nanai-Williams. Wales will make just one change to the lineup that beat Tonga. The Welsh field an young team with many players having just one or two caps, but they are well tested in the PRO 12, ready and hungry for a chance, and proved their quality last week for the National Team. Top guys like Roberts, Anscombe or Davies will be on the pitch to assure a balance between youth and experience.

Samoa: 15 D’Angelo Leuila, 14 Alapati Leiua, 13 Kieron Fonotia, 12 Rey Lee-Lo, 11 David Lemi (c), 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i, 8 Fata Alafoti Faosiliva, 7 Galu Taufale, 6 Piula Faasalele, 5 Faatiga Lemalu, 4 Chris Vui, 3 Paul Alo-Emile, 2 Maatulimanu Leiataua, 1 Viliamu Afatia

Wales: 15 Gareth Anscombe, 14 Cory Allen, 13 Tyler Morgan, 12 Jamie Roberts (c), 11 Steffan Evans, 10 Sam Davies, 9 Aled Davies, 8 Josh Navidi, 7 Ellis Jenkins, 6 Aaron Shingler, 5 Rory Thornton, 4 Seb Davies, 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Nicky Smith

Samoa will surely be desperate to redeem themselves after last week`s 0-78 loss to New Zealand, so expect full focus and determination from them.

However, playing the All Blacks requires a huge amount of effort and that will definitely work against Samoa in this game. Even if they will be fired up to perform better, they might not be fit enough to compete at their best level. History showed us again and again that Tier 2 teams are just not the same coming after a match against a Tier 1 opponent – they just can`t recover physically in space of just 1 week.

Look for Samoa to start strong, but they should fade away as time goes on and eventually Wales should take control in all facets of the game. The Welsh beat Tonga by 18 points last week and even if that was closer than the score suggests, it was still a big win against a team which is arguably better than Samoa, and was definitely much more fresh.

Samoa won the previous meeting 5 years ago in Cardiff, but much has changed since then and that result isn`t exactly relevant.

Even without most of their main players, Wales still has plenty more quality than Samoa. With the Samoans being in poor form and having to play one week after investing huge effort against New Zealand, an upset does not look likely at all.

I don`t necessarily expect a trashing, as this is far from a full strength Welsh side, but they should control the match and eventually put it beyond doubt as Samoa will tire in the last 30 minutes or so.

I`m satisfied going with the straight win as opposed to risking a handicap, which might be just a little bit tricky. Some may consider the odds to be low, but in my opinion a price around 1.40 – 1.45 is perfectly good to bet on here, and it might hold some value as well. My tip on this clash is Wales to win. Prediction: Samoa – Wales 18 – 27.

Pick: Wales
Odds: 1.46 @ Betsafe
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.14
Event date: 23 June