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Big serving Australian Samuel Groth and versatile Ukrainian Alexandr Dolgopolov square off in an interesting first round clash at the 2015 US Open. I will try to keep the analysis as concise as possible, as the tip comes a bit late and there are only 7 hours left before the match.
Groth is one of the biggest servers on tour and he`s actually in pretty good form right now. Big Sam reached the quarterfinals in Washington 3 weeks ago (lost to Nishikori) and followed that up with a second round at Winston Salem last week, where he lost in a decisive set with the in form Steve Johnson. He will look to make use of his big serve on the US Open hard courts, but the draw has not been kind, pairing him against red hot Alexandr Dolgopolov.
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The Ukrainean has played some of his best tennis two weeks ago in Cincinnati, reaching the semifinals and having Djokovic on the ropes, leading 1-0 in sets and having 5-4 in the second set tiebreak, with 2 serves. He blew that and was beaten soundly in the third set. Dolgopolov is very dangerous when he`s at his best level, but no one knows if he will bring it in the US Open as well. Dolgopolov is one of the most inconsistent players on tour and looking at the heartbreaking loss to Djokovic, there`s a chance his fragile mental has been affected. A proof of that is that last week, after Cincinnati, he lost to Kokkinakis in the Winston Salem first round (though that can also be attributed to fatigue and / or motivation).
The Head 2 Head is 2-0 for Dolgopolov (both meetings on hard). A tight 7-5 7-6 7-6 last year in Wimbledon and a 6-3 4-6 6-0 win this year in Acapulco.
The bottom line is quite simple here. Dolgopolov could well show his “Hyde” face today and play a poor match, but even if brings his “Jekyll” face, Groth’s big serve should allow the Australian to stay in the match. The handicap line seems way too high, we could normally expect at least a couple of tiebreaks here, so my tip is Groth to cover the +5,5 game handicap – with a high stakes investment, as I feel there`s very good value on this bet.
I`m choosing the handicap instead of the over line, because the handicap can be covered easily in three sets as well. Prediction: Sam Groth – Alexandr Dolgopolov 4-6 7-6 6-7 5-7.
Watch Groth vs. Dolgopolov – US Open live streaming available for players at Bet365.
Pick: Groth +5,5 game handicap
Odds: 1.90 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 8.10
Event date: 31 August
