Scotland – New Zealand

Scotland will host New Zealand in a highly expected clash for Scottish rugby, but the hosts will feel gutted that they have to deal with a plethora of injuries right when they face the mighty All Blacks.

Scotland’s progress over the last few years has been undeniable, and they are now arguably one of the Top 3 sides in Europe. This statement is validated by the fact that they finished tied for the third place with France in the 2017 Six Nations, although France got the nod due to a better points difference. The Scots also had a good Summer tour to the Southern Hemisphere (beat Australia!), but they haven`t started these year-end internationals well. Scotland played Samoa last week and barely mustered a 6 point win, conceding no less than 38 points at home!

New Zealand is coming after yet another undefeated Rugby Championship, where they won all their 6 games, although a couple of them were closer than expected. Since the Rugby Championship, New Zealand lost a Bledisloe Cup test in Australia (in mid October), but played very well last week in their first year-end international test, winning by 20 points in France (leading by 26 at half time). New Zealand played another test in France on Tuesday and won by 5 points, but both sides used their “B” teams, so that one doesn`t really count.

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Team news & lineups:

Scotland is decimated by injuries, particularly in the forwards department, with more than 10 players missing for various reasons, many of them being absolutely key guys. As for New Zealand, they have the long term injuries to guys like Retallick, Ben Smith, Milner-Skudder or Moody, but otherwise are at full strength coming into this clash.

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Lee Jones, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Cornell du Preez, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 John Barclay (c), 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Ben Toolis, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Stuart McInally, 1 Darryl Marfo

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Vaea Fifita, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Kane Hames

The All Blacks lineup looks really good, and it`s one of the best starting XV’s they were able to field in recent months (though Retallick and Moody remain big absences). Meanwhile, Scotland has real problems.

The Scots have to field 2nd and 3rd choice players in the forwards department, making them vulnerable in the scrum and mauls, and their defense is particularly affected. Samoa (a team that lost 0-78 to New Zealand earlier in the year) managed to score 38 points and lose by just 6 on Scottish soil last week, so you might imagine what the All Blacks could do.

Scotland will surely try to improve and will be more focused than against Samoa, but it`s hard to believe their defense can get that much better in just one week, and with no returning players to bolster the rankings.

It`s also fair to say that Scotland’s style of play, which is fast and wing-oriented, falls right into the hands of New Zealand, which plays the same way – but is so much better at it. There aren`t really any tactical shifts Scotland can make to surprise the All Blacks.

Scotland`s injuries in the forwards and their poor defense both look like massive vulnerabilities coming into this clash, which New Zealand should be able to exploit. Scotland’s absences also mean that their bench for this clash is just terrible, and that will be a big issue against a New Zealand side which proved deadly in the last 20-30 minutes multiple times (although not in the last 2-3 games).

There is no rain expected at game time, so that will be an advantage for New Zealand, as most of their close games this year where played in rain. They have been much more dominant and careful with the ball when there were no precipitations.

All in all, Scotland looks too vulnerable here, and you can`t really expect to challenge the All Blacks when you have so many injuries and issues. I reckon this could get ugly, and it wouldn`t be the first time Scotland suffers a big defeat this year (they lost by 40 points in England in the Six Nations).

My tip is New Zealand to cover the 19,5 point handicap. It`s a pretty high point spread indeed, so I`m reluctant to go with more than 8 units (which is still a high stake). But 20 points are well within New Zealand’s reach, as they can score them on you in less than 10 minutes if they`re on their game. Prediction: Scotland – New Zealand 16 – 43.

Pick: New Zealand -19,5
Odds: 1.91 @ William Hill
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.28
Event date: 18 November