Scotland – Wales

Scotland will host Wales at Murrayfield in the fourth round of the 2019 Six Nations, with Wales hoping to maintain the first chance at the title and also keep their Grand Slam dreams alive.

Scotland didn`t have the best of tournaments this year due to a mix of injuries and shaky play. The Scots started with a rather unimpressive 33-20 win against Italy at home (although they won much more clearly than the score suggests), lost 13-22 at home to Ireland, and lost again in the previous round 10-27 in France. Although Scotland missed a lot of players two weeks ago in France, it was still a very disappointing performance against an average French side.

Wales has become the big favorite to lift the Six Nations trophy this year, and they are also still in the hunt for the Grand Slam after beating the mighty England 21-13 in the last round. It was a brilliant performance from Wales, after being good but not great in the first two rounds (a tight win in France and an 11 point win in Italy, when they fielded a second string lineup). Wales were not rated that highly by people before the England win, but that was a big mistake. While the Welsh have not necessarily played breathtaking rugby over the last year, they always found a way to get the job done – proof of that being the fact that they have 12 wins in a row!

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Team news & lineups:

Scotland will be buoyed by the return of key players like Russell, Nel or Watson. They will be healthier than against France, but they still miss key pieces like Hogg or Jones.

Wales will field the same lineup which beat England two weeks ago, with just one exception (Cory Hill, injured vs England).

Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Nick Grigg, 12 Pete Horne, 11 Darcy Graham, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Josh Strauss, 7 Jamie Ritchie, 6 Magnus Bradbury, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Willem Nel, 2 Stuart McInally (c), 1 Allan Dell

Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Josh Navidi, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Adam Beard, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Rob Evans

Following the return of key players, Scotland will surely be stronger than against France, and at Murrayfield they are always a tough test for any team in the world. But with a couple of instrumental guys still on the sidelines, the Scots might not have enough against this Welsh outfit.

Wales really is playing some top stuff right now, they are riding a 12 match winning streak and they keep finding ways to win even on their off days. The visitors are healthy and will be desperate for a win here, which would give them the chance to play for the title and the Grand Slam in the last round, against Ireland, at home.

Wales will feel that they are the better team in the scrum, and they should dominate the forward battle. Scotland`s strong suit is normally out wide, but without key players there like Hogg and Jones, they might find it hard to get consistent rhythm and play in that area. And if their wide game isn`t clicking at full steam, it`s hard to see what else they could do against Wales.

Wales will also draw confidence from the H2H record against Scotland. The Scots have never been comfortable against Wales in the last few years, losing 11 out of the last 12 games played – 8 of them by double digits! That is an incredibly one sided H2H between two teams which have been more or less pretty balanced on paper in these last years.

The Murrayfield factor is always a boost for Scotland, but the Scots have pretty much everything else going against them, and home court advantage doesn`t seem like it will be enough to save them – just like it wasn`t last month against Ireland, and just like it wasn`t in 5 of the last 6 home games against Wales.

My tip will be Wales to win. The 4 point handicap does look tasty, but it probably won`t be a walk in the park for the visitors, so I`d rather stick with the safer straight win. 10/10 stakes though. Prediction: Scotland – Wales 17 – 23.

Pick: Wales
Odds: 1.57 @ Ohmbet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 5.70
Event date: 9 March