Senegal – Algeria

Senegal and Algeria meet in the last round of the African Cup of Nations group C. Senegal has 4 points, Algeria and Ghana 3 points, South Africa 1 point, so qualification is as open as it gets.

Senegal was not expected to lead this group after 2 rounds, but here they are after beating Ghana 2-1 and drawing with South Africa 1-1. They were a little lucky to beat Ghana in the 93rd minute but they did it and deserved it … also fell behind vs. South Africa and came back to claim a draw and now they have 5 wins and 1 draw in the last 6 matches … pretty good form for Senegal who shwoed excellent football over the past two weeks. They obviously have a very good team and are stacked at the striker position, but have a few problems in defense. Senegal can field the best lineup today, no injuries or suspensions for them.

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Algeria was coming into the tournament like one of the top favorites to win it all … and started great with a 3-1 win over South Africa. But Algeria than lost with a surprising 0-1 to Ghana (in the last minute, but deserved) and now they are in a difficult situation, needing at least a draw to advance … and if Ghana beats South Africa, than Algeria needs a win. Algeria has a clean bill of health ahead of this game but will probably make some minor changes to the lineup that played so poorly vs. Ghana.

Algeria is the odds on favorite for this game because they entered the tournament in great form and have a very balanced squad … but here in Equatorial Guinea they did not play well: horrible match vs. Ghana (no shots on goal) and even vs. South Africa they came back late from 0-1. Senegal can match Algeria in quality and are even better in attack … they entered the African Cup of Nations in great form themselves and played better football than the Algerians in this tournament … my tip will be Senegal +0,5 handicap … after all a draw could very well please both teams. I can not see Senegal blowing their qualification with a loss today. Corect score prediction: Senegal – Algeria 1-1.

Pick: Senegal (+0,5 handicap)
Odds: 1.52 @ Bet365
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 4.68
Event date: 27 January