Serbia – USA

Serbia and USA will play in the Men’s basketball finals in Rio, an event which will close out the 2016 Olympics. Team USA will enter the final as a 16,5 point spread favorite.

Serbia put on an absolute show in the semifinals against Australia, playing almost perfect basketball in terms of fundamentals, team play and defense. They held a very good Australian team (2nd highest scoring team in the competition) to just 5 points in the 1st quarter and 9 points in the 2nd quarter (!!!) – eventually winning the game 87-61. The Serbians have gotten better and better after starting slow with group stage losses to France (by 1 point), Australia (by 15 points). The turning point was a close 3 point loss to USA in the groups and Serbia has never looked back since.

Team USA recorded another close win in the semifinals against Spain, edging their rivals by just 6 points. USA was in control for most of the match but Spain still gave them a scare and it was the 4th time this tournament when USA wins by 10 points or less. They played very close games against the good teams they met and were not impressive. Talent got them trough, but their struggles have much to do with the uninspired way the team was put together, the big players missing and with the unprofessional preparation they went trough ahead of Rio.

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With the gold medals on the table this match is set to be different than the one in the group stages, but you have to wonder how much different can it get? Serbia was actually in worse form coming into that game and got off to a horrible start. USA was in full control, but the Serbians came back and had an open shot to tie the game in the last second, which they missed. Teodosic and Jokic were brilliant, while defense was working very well against the talented and athletic USA team.

Looking at that and also at how Serbia defended against the very capable Australia in the semis, USA might have a tough time breaking them down. Thing is this USA team is not hard to read at all due to the roster selection they made. Isolation, penetration, fast breaks and offensive rebounding are pretty much their only go to moves, because they don`t have many outside shooters who can capitalize when the other guys spread the floor. A clever, fundamentally sound Serbia can exploit that, as they did in the group stage.

Serbia was excellent throughout the tournament, they are on the back of an excellent performance and have shown they can compete with team USA in that 3 point loss in the group stage. We know the fire and commitment Serbian people have and this team makes no exception, so they will fight their hearts out for the gold medal, or to keep the score respectable if it goes out of hand. Expect Serbia to fight for every basket no matter the score, especially after a much stronger USA team demolished them in the 2014 World Cup final by 37 points. Serbia will definitely be desperate to avoid a repeat of that.

The handicap really seems very large and truth to be told, no matter how talented team USA is, I don`t even know if they have the quality to expect a 20 point blowout. This is arguably the weakest team they put together in the last decade, maybe not talent wise, but the way the team was constructed, with ball dominant player after ball dominant player, no perimeter shooting and little defense.

I expect team USA to win this tournament without glory, scraping another close win against Serbia. Yes it`s the final and yes Team USA will probably play its best game of the tournament, but it`s still a big leap from the 3 point win in the group stage to covering a 16 point spread. They were never on track to cover the spread a couple of days ago against Spain.

All in all my tip is Serbia +17 points. No more than 7 units for me, because when all is said and done, Team USA still deserves massive respect. Odds are dropping on the bet and the handicap line is moving down. Prediction: Serbia – USA 78 – 88.

Pick: Serbia +17
Odds: 1.77 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 5.39
Event date: 21 August