Williams – Cibulkova

Serena Williams will take on last years’ finalist, Dominika Cibulkova, in the Australian Open quarters.

Serena has been shaky to say the least in this tournament. A lot of mistakes, not quite herself, falling down in sets to Svitolina and Muguruza, even having problems against Zvonareva – and you can’t say that her opponents played spectacular tennis. She did well to recover each time, but even when coming back she was not at her best – more like trying to find a balance, playing more careful and trying to put more first serves in.

Cibulkova started her finals defense with a lost set to Flipkens, but the Slovakian has been very good ever since. She cruised through Pironkova and Corner before knocking out a rejuvenated Azarenka in the fourth round, a match with a lot of winners but also errors. It`s difficult to say that Cibulkova is playing as good as last year, I`d say she`s not, but she`s not far away either. She`ll have to play a more controled game and limit her errors today against Serena.

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Serena Williams leads the Head 2 Head 4-0, losing just 1 set against Cibulkova and easily winning the last meeting one year ago in Brisbane. She does look to have Dominka’s number, but there are different circumstances not with Serena playing poorly and Dominika in good form.

As far as I`m concerned it`s very hard to find a bet in which you can be totally confident here, Serena is way too inconsistent – but you can find a lot of value. Serena is not playing well, that`s for sure and she seems very fragile in this tournament. Unfortunately Cibulkova is not at her absolute top level herself, but if she puts together a clean match she has a real chance to win this. Hopefully Serena won`t improve her level and Cibulkova maintains a consistent level, in which case I reckon we`ll see the big upset.

My tip is Cibulkova to win. A safer option would be Dominika to snatch a set, but it all depends on Serena so I`m just going to bet on the best odds and maximum value here. Prediction: Serena Williams – Dominika Cibulkova 2-6 6-0 5-7.

Pick: Cibulkova win
Odds: 5.46 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 3
Possible profit: 13.38
Event date: 28 January