Sevilla – Leicester

FC Sevilla will try to capitalize on Leicester’s disastrous form and claim a comfortable advantage in the first leg of this Champions League round of last 16 clash.

Sevilla is having a solid season, sitting on the 4th place in the Spanish La Liga and qualifying to the Champions League KO stage from a group with Juventus, Lyon and Dinamo Zagreb. The hosts are riding a 2 match winning streak and have been very strong at home this season, as it is usually the case with them. At home, Sevilla won 9 out 11 in La Liga and 2 out of 3 in the Champions League.

Just when it seemed it could not get any worse for Leicester, they managed to lay another egg and lose 1-0 in the FA Cup to Millwall over the weekend – with Millwall scoring the winner late in the game despite being down to 10 men. Leicester did play a “B team” in that game but it was still another morale hampering loss and the 8th consecutive match in which Leicester failed to win (all competitions). In the Premier League things are going horribly, with the Foxes failing to score in the last 10 hours of football (!!!) and losing 5 in a row.

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Team news & lineups:

Sevilla will miss Krohn-Dehli, Tremoulinas and possibly Pareja. Leicester will be happy to report a clean bill of health. Slimani is a slight doubt, but he should be fit to start in what will be Leicester’s ideal first XI.

FC Sevilla: Rico – Mariano, Lenglet, Rami, Escudero – N’Zonzi, Iborra – Vazquez, Nasri, Vitolo – Jovetic

Leicester City: Schmeichel – Simpson, Morgan, Huth, Fuchs – Albrighton, Ndidi, Drinkwater, Mahrez – Slimani, Vardy

Earlier in the season Leicester’s main focus has been the Champions League and results were excellent, but Ranieri recently admitted that right now the main objective is to get back on track in the league – as relegation is becoming a real possibility. Despite this fact, he will field his best starting eleven in this match and Leicester will surely want to get a good result.

Playing without pressure might actually be a good thing for Leicester, they are expected to lose this and Sevilla will be the team that holds possession – the exact same situation in which the Foxes were last season in the Premier League. The other hand the players do not have the same confidence as last year, but it will be nice for them to absorb pressure and rely on counters, the tactic they know so well.

There`s also the fact that most English teams have figured out Ranieri and Leicester, but Sevilla can`t possibly have done it on the same level. They play in another league and have a different style of football than the one in the Premier League. It might be one of the reasons for which Leicester performed much better in Europe.

Sevilla seems like the obvious favorite here and punters are all over them, but this could be a very tricky game for a team that is not used to be such a favorite in the Champions League knockout stages and faces an opponent free of pressure. All the previously mentioned arguments make me believe an upset is likely in this game.

Leicester, even in the current form, is not as bad as odds suggest and I`m happy to back them to cover the 1,5 handicap here. I believe Leicester will produce the upset just when everybody is writing them out. Even if they lose, the bet gives us a cushion of 1 goal, which is very important.

As per my analysis, my tip is Leicester +1,5. There`s value here, as the odds couldn`t possibly be any lower for Sevilla to win against the Foxes at any other point of the season. Prediction: Sevilla – Leicester City 1-2.

Pick: Leicester +1,5
Odds: 1.90 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 22 February