Halep – Muguruza

Simona Halep and Garbine Muguruza will square off on Thursday in the Roland Garros semifinals, with the winner of this clash set to be the clear cut favorite in the last act.

Halep has been very solid so far this week, winning her matches comfortably despite losing two sets along the way – in the first round against Riske (2-6 6-1 6-1) and Wednesday in the quarterfinals against Kerber (6-7 6-3 6-2). Her other victories came in dominant fashion against Townsend, Petkovic and Mertens. Overall the Romanian is having an excellent year and has been good on the European clay as well (finals in Rome, qf`s in Madrid), although she didn`t win a title on the red dirt.

Muguruza didn`t do very well in the big tournaments this year, but she brought her best form these weeks in Paris, and when she`s playing like this, the two time Grand Slam champion is hard to beat. So far Muguruza defeated Kuznetsova, Ferro, Stosur, Tsurenko and Sharapova without losing a single set, and in the last three matches (Stosur, Tsurenko, Sharapova) she lost just 5 games (!!!), although it`s true that Tsurenko retired early in the first set.

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Muguruza leads the H2H 3-1, but Halep won the only clay court meeting. Halep will have a matchup problem here, as she struggled throughout her career against big hitters.

Halep has horrible records against most good big hitters on tour: 1-8 against Serena, 2-7 against Sharapova, or 1-3 against Muguruza. Last year she was blown off the court in the Roland Garros final by Ostapenko, after having a perfect tournament up to that point. Against Muguruza, she lost the last meeting 1-6 0-6 in the 2017 Cincinnati final.

Halep has been beaten again and again in the final stages of big tournaments by power players and big hitters, as her tiny build simply does not allow her to resist against these big hitters – who are thus able to power their way past the Romanian. Another reason for this is that her second serve is fragile, so a player like Muguruza can come in and blast winners right off the return.

Halep can defeat this kind of players with her baseline consistency when her opponents are not in top form and are making errors – but that is never the case in advanced stages of tournaments, and surely not the case with Muguruza now, as the Spaniard is playing at a brilliant level.

Garbine has really been special in the last 10 days and especially in her 6-2 6-1 destruction of Sharapova in the quarterfinals. She`s a two time Grand Slam champion (including a Roland Garros champion) who knows how to win these kind of matches, so given Halep’s history against big hitters, there can be no doubt that the match will be in her racquet.

This is Muguruza’s match to lose, she will control the tempo, so my tip will be Garbine to advance into the RG final. As long as the Spaniard maintains the same high level of play and limits her errors, there should be little that Halep can do. Prediction: Simona Halep – Garbine Muguruza 5-7 1-6.

Pick: Muguruza
Odds: 1.90 @ 1xBet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 7.20
Event date: 7 June